Department of Psychology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Nat Hum Behav. 2020 Nov;4(11):1186-1197. doi: 10.1038/s41562-020-00977-7. Epub 2020 Nov 2.
Numerous polls suggest that COVID-19 is a profoundly partisan issue in the United States. Using the geotracking data of 15 million smartphones per day, we found that US counties that voted for Donald Trump (Republican) over Hillary Clinton (Democrat) in the 2016 presidential election exhibited 14% less physical distancing between March and May 2020. Partisanship was more strongly associated with physical distancing than numerous other factors, including counties' COVID-19 cases, population density, median income, and racial and age demographics. Contrary to our predictions, the observed partisan gap strengthened over time and remained when stay-at-home orders were active. Additionally, county-level consumption of conservative media (Fox News) was related to reduced physical distancing. Finally, the observed partisan differences in distancing were associated with subsequently higher COVID-19 infection and fatality growth rates in pro-Trump counties. Taken together, these data suggest that US citizens' responses to COVID-19 are subject to a deep-and consequential-partisan divide.
多项民意调查显示，新冠疫情是美国一个严重的党派问题。我们利用每天 1500 万部智能手机的地理追踪数据发现，在 2016 年美国总统选举中投票给唐纳德·特朗普（共和党）而不是希拉里·克林顿（民主党）的美国县份，在 2020 年 3 月至 5 月期间的身体距离减少了 14%。党派偏见与身体距离的关联性比其他许多因素（包括县份的新冠病例、人口密度、中位数收入、种族和年龄人口统计数据）更强。与我们的预测相反，观察到的党派差距随着时间的推移而加强，即使在居家令生效时也是如此。此外，保守派媒体（福克斯新闻）的县一级消费与身体距离的缩短有关。最后，观察到的在保持距离方面的党派差异与随后在支持特朗普的县份新冠感染和死亡率的增长有关。综上所述，这些数据表明，美国公民对新冠疫情的反应受到深刻且后果严重的党派分歧的影响。
