Scientific Research Centre for Ecological Safety of the Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 18, Korpusnaya str., 197110 St.-Petersburg, Russia.
Saint-Petersburg Pasteur Institute, 14, str. Mira, 197101 St.-Petersburg, Russia.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Oct 30;17(21):8006. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17218006.
In recent decades, a considerable increase in the number of tick-bitten humans has been recorded in the north of European Russia. At the same time, significant climatic changes, such as an increase in air temperature, were noticed in this region. The northern border of the distribution area lies in the north of European Russia, therefore the analysis of the population dynamics is of particular interest regarding the possible impact of the climate changes. Unfortunately, in such a large territory field, studies on tick abundance are very difficult. In our study, the official statistics for the number of tick-bitten humans were used. This kind of statistical analysis has been conducted in the Russian Federation for many years, and can be used for the estimation of climate change impact on tick abundance. Statistical data on tick-bitten humans have been collected in three large regions for several decades. For the same regions, the average annual air temperature was calculated and modeled. An S-shaped distribution of the number of victims depending on the average annual air temperature was established, which can be described as "Verhulst's law", or logistic function. However, the development of the population does not depend on time, but on the temperature of the ambient air.
近几十年来，在俄罗斯北部地区，被蜱虫叮咬的人数显著增加。与此同时，该地区还出现了显著的气候变化，例如空气温度升高。分布区的北部边界位于俄罗斯北部，因此分析人口动态对于气候变化可能产生的影响具有特别的意义。不幸的是，在这样一个广阔的地域内，蜱虫数量的研究非常困难。在我们的研究中，使用了官方统计的被蜱虫叮咬的人类数量。这种统计分析在俄罗斯联邦已经进行了多年，可以用于估计气候变化对蜱虫数量的影响。数十年来，已经在三个大区收集了关于被蜱虫叮咬的人类的统计数据。对于同一地区，计算并建立了平均年空气温度的模型。结果发现，受害者数量与平均年空气温度之间存在“S”形分布，可以用“Verhulst 定律”或逻辑函数来描述。然而，种群的发展并不取决于时间，而是取决于环境空气的温度。
