Suppr超能文献

关联土地覆盖变化与气候敏感感染事件模式:以北欧地区蜱传疾病为例。

Associating Land Cover Changes with Patterns of Incidences of Climate-Sensitive Infections: An Example on Tick-Borne Diseases in the Nordic Area.

机构信息

School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK.

GeotRYcs Cie, 34000 Montpellier, France.

出版信息

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Oct 19;18(20):10963. doi: 10.3390/ijerph182010963.

Abstract

Some of the climate-sensitive infections (CSIs) affecting humans are zoonotic vector-borne diseases, such as Lyme borreliosis (BOR) and tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), mostly linked to various species of ticks as vectors. Due to climate change, the geographical distribution of tick species, their hosts, and the prevalence of pathogens are likely to change. A recent increase in human incidences of these CSIs in the Nordic regions might indicate an expansion of the range of ticks and hosts, with vegetation changes acting as potential predictors linked to habitat suitability. In this paper, we study districts in Fennoscandia and Russia where incidences of BOR and TBE have steadily increased over the 1995-2015 period (defined as 'Well Increasing districts'). This selection is taken as a proxy for increasing the prevalence of tick-borne pathogens due to increased habitat suitability for ticks and hosts, thus simplifying the multiple factors that explain incidence variations. This approach allows vegetation types and strengths of correlation specific to the WI districts to be differentiated and compared with associations found over all districts. Land cover types and their changes found to be associated with increasing human disease incidence are described, indicating zones with potential future higher risk of these diseases. Combining vegetation cover and climate variables in regression models shows the interplay of biotic and abiotic factors linked to CSI incidences and identifies some differences between BOR and TBE. Regression model projections up until 2070 under different climate scenarios depict possible CSI progressions within the studied area and are consistent with the observed changes over the past 20 years.

摘要

一些影响人类的气候敏感感染(CSIs)是动物源性媒介传播疾病,如莱姆病(BOR)和蜱传脑炎(TBE),主要与各种蜱作为媒介有关。由于气候变化,蜱种、它们的宿主以及病原体的流行情况可能会发生变化。北欧地区最近人类这些 CSI 发病率的增加可能表明蜱和宿主的范围扩大,植被变化可能是与栖息地适宜性相关的潜在预测因子。在本文中,我们研究了 1995 年至 2015 年间 BOR 和 TBE 发病率稳步上升的芬兰-斯堪的纳维亚地区和俄罗斯地区(定义为“发病率不断上升的地区”)。这种选择是为了简化解释发病率变化的多种因素,将因蜱和宿主的栖息地适宜性增加而导致的蜱传病原体流行率增加作为代理。这种方法允许区分特定于 WI 地区的植被类型和相关性强度,并将其与所有地区的关联进行比较。描述了与人类疾病发病率增加相关的土地覆盖类型及其变化,表明这些疾病未来潜在风险较高的区域。在回归模型中结合植被覆盖和气候变量,显示了与 CSI 发病率相关的生物和非生物因素的相互作用,并确定了 BOR 和 TBE 之间的一些差异。不同气候情景下直至 2070 年的回归模型预测描绘了研究区域内 CSI 的可能进展,并与过去 20 年的观察变化一致。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7f92/8535683/8ff5720fa95f/ijerph-18-10963-g001.jpg

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍。

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索

文档翻译

学术文献翻译模型,支持多种主流文档格式。

立即体验