Goodchild Mark, Paul Jeremias, Iglesias Roberto, Bouw Annerie, Perucic Anne-Marie
Health Promotion Department, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
Health Promotion Department, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
Tob Control. 2022 Jan;31(1):57-64. doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2020-055980. Epub 2020 Nov 3.
The Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products (the Protocol) entered into force in September 2018, and commits Parties to implement a package of measures to combat this global problem. The aim of this study is to assess the potential impact of eliminating illicit cigarettes on consumption, use and tax revenues.
We identified 36 countries where an independent (non-industry sponsored) study of the illicit cigarette market was available. We developed a conceptual framework for describing how the elimination of illicit cigarettes might impact on demand (consumption and use) and applied this framework to our sample of countries to assess the impact of eliminating illicit cigarettes across different settings.
Illicit cigarettes account on average for 11.2% of the market in these 36 countries. The elimination of illicit cigarettes would reduce total cigarette consumption by 1.9% across these countries. The decrease in 'group A' countries-where illicit cigarettes are >15% of the market-would average 4.1%. The smoking rate would decrease by 1.0% in relative terms including by 2.2% in group A countries. Tax revenues from the legal sale of cigarettes would increase by 11.2% including by 25.1% in group A countries.
The illicit cigarette market reflects a complex interplay between supply and demand, with an array of different country conditions. Regardless of the situation, our study highlights the contribution that the elimination of illicit trade can make to tobacco control through demand reduction while at the same time generating significant tax revenues.
《消除烟草制品非法贸易议定书》（《议定书》）于2018年9月生效，要求各缔约方采取一系列措施应对这一全球问题。本研究旨在评估消除非法卷烟对消费、使用和税收收入的潜在影响。
我们确定了36个国家，这些国家有关于非法卷烟市场的独立（非行业资助）研究。我们制定了一个概念框架，以描述消除非法卷烟可能如何影响需求（消费和使用），并将该框架应用于我们的国家样本，以评估在不同背景下消除非法卷烟的影响。
在这36个国家中，非法卷烟平均占市场的11.2%。消除非法卷烟将使这些国家的卷烟总消费量减少1.9%。在“ A组”国家（非法卷烟占市场15%以上），消费量平均下降4.1%。吸烟率将相对下降1.0%，其中A组国家下降2.2%。合法销售卷烟的税收收入将增加11.2%，其中A组国家增加25.1%。
非法卷烟市场反映了供需之间复杂的相互作用，各国情况各不相同。无论情况如何，我们的研究都强调了消除非法贸易对烟草控制的贡献，即通过减少需求，同时产生可观的税收收入。
