Faculty of Health Sciences, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan.
The Department of Pharmacy, Hokkaido University of Science, Sapporo, Japan.
Hum Resour Health. 2020 Nov 5;18(1):85. doi: 10.1186/s12960-020-00524-5.
Pharmacists play an important role in promoting people's health in Japan, which has an aging population. Hence, it is necessary that the distribution of pharmacists meets the population's needs in each region. This study projects the future supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies to consider an optimal distribution of pharmacists.
The future supply of pharmacists working in pharmacies in Hokkaido is projected using system dynamics modeling, according to their career path. The demand is projected based on the number of prescriptions, sourced from publicly available sources. The analysis period is 2015-2040. The estimated demand is converted into the number of pharmacists and the sufficiency is evaluated using sufficiency ratio (supply/demand ratio). Sensitivity analyses of the sufficiency ratio were conducted to estimate the effects of changes in parameters such as national exam pass rate, enrollments, attrition rates, the number of prescriptions per pharmacist, and diffusion of newly licensed pharmacists.
The projected supply, in 2025 and 2040, is 1.24 and 1.56 times, respectively, as that in 2015 and the demand is 1.11 and 0.98 times, respectively. In 2015, although the sufficiency ratio in Hokkaido overall is 1.19, the ratios are higher in urban medical areas and lower than 1 in rural medical areas, such as Minamihiyama, Emmon, and Nemuro. By 2040, the sufficiency ratios are greater than 1 for all areas except for Emmon and higher than 2 in some areas. The sensitivity analyses found that the sufficiency ratio was most sensitive to diffusion of newly licensed pharmacists and the number of prescriptions per pharmacist.
Optimal distribution should be considered, as the results reveal a possible shortage in the number of pharmacists in rural medical areas in 2015-2025. Conversely, as the demand is projected to decrease after 2025 with a population decrease, future supply should be determined in order not to cause an oversupply after 2025. Refinements of the projection model should be conducted since the related factors such as the roles of pharmacists will change over time.
在人口老龄化的日本，药剂师在促进民众健康方面发挥着重要作用。因此，有必要确保药剂师在各地区的分布满足当地人口的需求。本研究通过系统动力学模型预测未来药店药剂师的供应和需求情况，以考虑药剂师的最佳分布。
根据药剂师的职业发展路径，使用系统动力学模型预测北海道药店药剂师的未来供应情况。需求根据公开来源的处方数量进行预测。分析期为 2015 年至 2040 年。将估计的需求转换为药剂师人数，并使用充足率（供应/需求比）评估充足程度。对充足率进行敏感性分析，以估计国家考试通过率、招生人数、离职率、每位药剂师处方数量和新获得执照的药剂师的扩散等参数变化的影响。
预计 2025 年和 2040 年的供应量将分别是 2015 年的 1.24 倍和 1.56 倍，而需求量将分别是 2015 年的 1.11 倍和 0.98 倍。2015 年，尽管北海道整体充足率为 1.19，但城市医疗区的充足率较高，而农村医疗区（如 Minamihiyama、Emmon 和 Nemuro）则低于 1。到 2040 年，除了 Emmon 以外，所有地区的充足率都大于 1，一些地区的充足率大于 2。敏感性分析发现，充足率对新获得执照的药剂师的扩散和每位药剂师的处方数量最为敏感。
鉴于 2015-2025 年农村医疗区可能出现药剂师短缺，应考虑进行最佳分布。相反，由于人口减少，预计 2025 年后需求将下降，因此应确定未来的供应，以避免 2025 年后出现供应过剩。由于随着时间的推移，药剂师的角色等相关因素将会发生变化，因此应改进预测模型。
