Araseki Miwa, Yokooka Yuki, Ishikawa Tomoki, Ogasawara Katsuhiko
Department of Radiological Technology, Suttu Municipal Clinic, 72-2 Oshimacho, Suttu-Cho, Hokkaido 048-0406, Japan.
Radiol Phys Technol. 2013 Jul;6(2):467-73. doi: 10.1007/s12194-013-0220-7. Epub 2013 Jun 1.
It is essential to predict the long-term supply and demand for the number of radiologic technologists as medical resources. However, it is difficult to predict the number of Japanese radiologic technologists due to complex and intertwining factors. Our purpose in this study was to predict the future number of radiologic technologists using the concept of system dynamics (SD), and to clarify the effects of relevant factors. In order to estimate the number of Japanese radiologic technologists, we constructed a flow diagram using the concept of SD. We simulated the number of radiologic technologists for the following 4 cases: maintaining the status quo, a change in the pass rate for the national examination, a change in the post-graduate employment rate, and a change in the rate of continuing education. The result for the predicted number of radiologic technologists was 50,509 in 20 years, which is 4,394 (9.5%) more than the present number, and 50,166 in 40 years, which is 4,051 (8.8%) more than the present number. For the factors influencing the number of technologists, the influence of the pass rate on the national examination and that of the rate for post-graduate employment was larger than that of the rate of continuing education in graduate school. The number of Japanese radiologic technologists will increase until 2033 and decrease until 2042, and it does not change after 2042 in case of maintaining the status quo. Implementing the concept of SD allowed us easily to clarify the factors influencing the predicted number of radiologic technologists.
预测作为医疗资源的放射技师数量的长期供需情况至关重要。然而，由于存在复杂且相互交织的因素，很难预测日本放射技师的数量。本研究的目的是运用系统动力学（SD）概念预测未来放射技师的数量，并阐明相关因素的影响。为了估算日本放射技师的数量，我们运用SD概念构建了流程图。我们针对以下4种情况模拟了放射技师的数量：维持现状、国家考试通过率的变化、研究生就业率的变化以及继续教育率的变化。预测的放射技师数量结果为，20年后是50,509人，比当前数量多4,394人（9.5%），40年后是50,166人，比当前数量多4,051人（8.8%）。对于影响技师数量的因素，国家考试通过率和研究生就业率的影响大于研究生阶段继续教育率的影响。在维持现状的情况下，日本放射技师数量将在2033年前增加，在2042年前减少，2042年后不再变化。运用SD概念使我们能够轻松阐明影响放射技师预测数量的因素。
