[Impact of Change in Community Pharmacists' Role on Their Estimated Demand].

Pharmacists play a key role in optimizing the safe and effective use of medicines in the super-aged society in Japan. Recently, community pharmacists' role has been transformed and expanded to provide patient-centered care. This study aimed to simulate a change in the demand for community pharmacists resulting from this shift in their role, from 2019 to 2035. The change in demand was estimated by the number of prescriptions obtained from publicly available sources of information. The number of required community pharmacists was calculated separately for full-time and part-time pharmacists and the pharmacists engaged in home medical care. This number was calculated using the estimated demand, the number of prescriptions dispensed per day, and annual working days. We evaluated the effect of changes in the working conditions, which include changes in the dispensing process time, rate of part-time staff and their work time, and number of home medical care per day, on the number of community pharmacists. When the number of prescriptions dispensed per day was set at 19.8, the demand for community pharmacists was estimated as 188,314 in 2035. Furthermore, due to the changes in the working conditions, the demand is expected to change from 153,362 to 266,944. Although the increasing provision of drug information time leads to an increasing number of pharmacists, combining it with work efficiency services could prevent or decrease it. The optimal supply and demand balance of community pharmacists should be determined by both, promoting pharmaceutical care services and improving work efficiency.