Homer Jack B, Hirsch Gary B
Independent consultants, 3618 Avalon Court, Voorhees, NJ 08043, USA.
Am J Public Health. 2006 Mar;96(3):452-8. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2005.062059. Epub 2006 Jan 31.
The systems modeling methodology of system dynamics is well suited to address the dynamic complexity that characterizes many public health issues. The system dynamics approach involves the development of computer simulation models that portray processes of accumulation and feedback and that may be tested systematically to find effective policies for overcoming policy resistance. System dynamics modeling of chronic disease prevention should seek to incorporate all the basic elements of a modern ecological approach, including disease outcomes, health and risk behaviors, environmental factors, and health-related resources and delivery systems. System dynamics shows promise as a means of modeling multiple interacting diseases and risks, the interaction of delivery systems and diseased populations, and matters of national and state policy.
系统动力学的系统建模方法非常适合解决表征许多公共卫生问题的动态复杂性。系统动力学方法涉及开发计算机模拟模型，这些模型描绘积累和反馈过程，并且可以进行系统测试以找到克服政策阻力的有效政策。慢性病预防的系统动力学建模应寻求纳入现代生态方法的所有基本要素，包括疾病结果、健康和风险行为、环境因素以及与健康相关的资源和提供系统。系统动力学作为一种对多种相互作用的疾病和风险、提供系统与患病群体的相互作用以及国家和州政策问题进行建模的手段，显示出了前景。
