Dobbs F F, Fleming D M
J R Coll Gen Pract. 1987 Mar;37(296):100-4.
Patients presenting with symptoms suggestive of urinary tract infection were recruited in a general practice survey aimed at measuring the predictive value of symptoms, history and urine dipstick testing for diagnosing the presence of bacterial infection. Urine specimens were obtained from 87% of the 521 patients recruited. A diagnosis of infection was established by urine culture producing a colony count in a pure culture exceeding 100 000 organisms per ml or between 10 000 and 100 000 organisms per ml plus a minimum of 100 leucocytes per mm(3).Occurrence rates for symptoms and other items of information in infected and non-infected groups were used to derive their positive and negative predictive values in making the diagnosis. The predictive value of volunteered symptoms was compared with that of elicited and volunteered symptoms combined. The positive predictive value of symptoms was increased where elicited symptoms were included but this was achieved at the cost of diminishing the negative predictive value. The occurrence rates were used to derive a mathematical model for diagnosing infection. The symptoms-history-urinalysis (SHU) score generated in this model compared well with a computer predicted probability. Both were substantially better than the assessment and action (decision to prescribe an antibiotic) of the recording doctor.The scoring method described has been demonstrated in urinary tract infection but may be applied to any symptom combination related to a diagnosis for which there is an agreed definition.
在一项旨在评估症状、病史及尿试纸检测对诊断细菌感染预测价值的全科医疗调查中,招募了有提示尿路感染症状的患者。在招募的521名患者中,87%的患者提供了尿液样本。通过尿培养确诊感染,即纯培养菌落计数每毫升超过100000个微生物,或每毫升10000至100000个微生物且每立方毫米至少有100个白细胞。利用感染组和未感染组症状及其他信息项目的发生率来得出其在诊断中的阳性和阴性预测值。将自发症状的预测值与引出症状和自发症状相结合的预测值进行比较。当纳入引出症状时,症状的阳性预测值增加,但这是以降低阴性预测值为代价的。利用发生率得出了一个诊断感染的数学模型。该模型生成的症状-病史-尿液分析(SHU)评分与计算机预测概率相比效果良好。两者都明显优于记录医生的评估和行动(决定开抗生素)。所描述的评分方法已在尿路感染中得到验证,但可能适用于与有公认定义的诊断相关的任何症状组合。