Gao Feng, Zhou Yuanxi, Zhao Renbo, Ren Yingqing
Department of Orthopaedics, The Affiliated Yangming Hospital of Ningbo University, Yuyao People's Hospital of Zhejiang Province, Yuyao.
Department of Orthopaedics, Health Community Group of Yuhuan Second People's Hospital, Yuhuan.
Medicine (Baltimore). 2020 Nov 13;99(46):e23050. doi: 10.1097/MD.0000000000023050.
Patients diagnosed with Ewing sarcoma (ES) usually experience poor outcomes. Accurate prediction of ES patients' prognosis is essential to improve their survival. Given that ES is a relatively rare tumor with a low incidence, we aim at developing a prognostic nomogram of ES patients based on a large sample analysis.We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to screen eligible patients diagnosed ES of bone. This retrospective study presented the clinicopathological characteristics and prognosis of ES. We randomly assigned all ES patients to 2 sets (training set and validation set) with an equal number of patients. In order to identify independent factors of survival, we performed univariate and multivariate Cox analysis in the training set. Then, we constructed novel nomograms to predict survival of ES patients by integrating significant independent variables from the training set. The prognostic performance of constructed nomograms was examined using concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves in both training and validation set.We included a total of 988 eligible cases diagnosed ES of bone between 2000 and 2015. Age >18 years, distant metastasis, tumor size >10 cm, and no surgery were independent risk factors for poorer survival. Our survival prediction nomograms were established based on those 4 independent risk factors. Good calibration plots were achieved in internal and external validation. The internal validation C-indexes of the nomogram for overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were 0.733 and 0.737, respectively. Similar good results were also achieved in external validation setting.The established nomograms show good performance and allow for better evaluating the prognosis of ES patients and recommending appropriate instructions.
被诊断为尤因肉瘤(ES)的患者通常预后较差。准确预测ES患者的预后对于提高其生存率至关重要。鉴于ES是一种发病率较低的相对罕见的肿瘤,我们旨在通过大样本分析开发一种ES患者的预后列线图。我们使用监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库筛选出符合条件的骨ES诊断患者。这项回顾性研究展示了ES的临床病理特征和预后。我们将所有ES患者随机分为两组(训练集和验证集),每组患者数量相等。为了确定生存的独立因素,我们在训练集中进行了单因素和多因素Cox分析。然后,我们通过整合训练集中的显著独立变量构建了新的列线图来预测ES患者的生存情况。使用一致性指数(C指数)和校准曲线在训练集和验证集中检验构建列线图的预后性能。我们共纳入了2000年至2015年间988例符合条件的骨ES诊断病例。年龄>18岁、远处转移、肿瘤大小>10厘米和未进行手术是生存较差的独立危险因素。我们基于这4个独立危险因素建立了生存预测列线图。在内部和外部验证中均获得了良好的校准图。总生存(OS)和癌症特异性生存(CSS)列线图的内部验证C指数分别为0.733和0.737。在外部验证中也取得了类似的良好结果。所建立的列线图表现良好,能够更好地评估ES患者的预后并给出适当的建议。