Department of Spine Surgery, Qingdao Chengyang People's Hospital, No.600 Changcheng Road, Chengyang District, Qingdao, Shandong Province, 266109, People's Republic of China.
Department of Orthopaedics, Weifang Sunshine Union Hospital, Weifang, Shandong, 261000, People's Republic of China.
BMC Musculoskelet Disord. 2020 Nov 12;21(1):737. doi: 10.1186/s12891-020-03706-3.
Ewing sarcoma, the second most frequent bone tumor in children and adolescents, is often presented with localized disease or metastatic-related symptoms. In this study, we aim to construct and validate a nomogram for patients with Ewing sarcoma to predict the 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.
Demographic and clinic pathological characteristics of patients with Ewing sarcoma diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 were extracted from SEER database. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were carried out to identify the independent characteristics. The independent factors were further included into the construction of a nomogram. Finally, c-index and calibration curves were used to validate the nomogram.
A total of 578 patients were enrolled into our analysis. The results of univariate Cox analysis showed that age, 7th AJCC stage, 7th AJCC T stage, 7th AJCC N stage, 7th AJCC M stage, metastatic status to lung, liver and bone were significant factors. Multivariate Cox analysis was performed and it confirmed age, N stage and bone metastasis as independent variables. Next, a nomogram was constructed using these independent variables in prediction to the 3- and 5-year OS. Furthermore, favorable results with c-indexes (0.757 in training set and 0.697 in validation set) and calibration curves closer to ideal curves indicated the accurate predictive ability of this nomogram.
The individualized nomogram demonstrated a good ability in prognostic prediction for patients with Ewing sarcoma.
尤因肉瘤是儿童和青少年中第二常见的骨肿瘤，常表现为局限性疾病或转移性相关症状。在这项研究中，我们旨在基于监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据库构建并验证一个尤因肉瘤患者的列线图，以预测 3 年和 5 年总生存（OS）。
从 SEER 数据库中提取 2010 年至 2015 年间诊断为尤因肉瘤的患者的人口统计学和临床病理特征。进行单因素和多因素 Cox 分析，以确定独立特征。将独立因素进一步纳入列线图的构建中。最后，使用 C 指数和校准曲线验证列线图。
共纳入 578 例患者进行分析。单因素 Cox 分析结果表明，年龄、第 7 届 AJCC 分期、第 7 届 AJCC T 分期、第 7 届 AJCC N 分期、第 7 届 AJCC M 分期、肺转移、肝转移和骨转移是显著因素。多因素 Cox 分析显示年龄、N 分期和骨转移是独立变量。然后，使用这些独立变量构建了一个列线图，以预测 3 年和 5 年 OS。此外，C 指数（训练集为 0.757，验证集为 0.697）和校准曲线接近理想曲线的良好结果表明该列线图具有准确的预测能力。
该个体化列线图在预测尤因肉瘤患者的预后方面具有良好的能力。
