A Mathematical Modeling Approach to Uncover Factors Influencing the Spread of in a Flock of Broiler-Breeder Chickens.

Despite continued efforts to improve biosecurity protocols, continues to be detected in the majority of commercial chicken flocks across Europe. Using an extensive data set of prevalence within a chicken breeder flock for over a year, multiple Bayesian models are presented to explore the dynamics of the spread of in response to seasonal variation, species-specificity, bird health, and total colonization prevalence. These models indicated that birds within the flock varied greatly in their response to bacterial challenge, and that this phenomenon had a large impact on the overall prevalence of different species of . appeared more frequently in the summer, while persisted for a longer duration, amplified by the most susceptible birds in the flock. Our study suggests that strains of that appear most frequently likely possess no demographic advantage, but are instead amplified due to the health of the birds that ingest it.