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基于证据的肯尼亚青年艾滋病毒/艾滋病动力学联合控制模型。

Evidence-based modeling of combination control on Kenyan youth HIV/AIDS dynamics.

机构信息

School of Mathematics, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya.

Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg, South Africa.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2020 Nov 17;15(11):e0242491. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0242491. eCollection 2020.

DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0242491
PMID:33201934
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7671564/
Abstract

We formulate a sex-structured deterministic model to study the effects of varying HIV testing rates, condom use rates and ART adherence rates among Adolescent Girls and Young Women (AGYW) and, Adolescent Boys and Young Men (ABYM) populations in Kenya. Attitudes influencing the Kenyan youth HIV/AIDS control measures both positively and negatively were considered. Using the 2012 Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey (KAIS) microdata we constructed our model, which we fitted to the UNAIDS-Kenya youth prevalence estimates to understand factors influencing Kenyan youth HIV/AIDS prevalence trends. While highly efficacious combination control approach significantly reduces HIV/AIDS prevalence rates among the youth, the disease remains endemic provided infected unaware sexual interactions persist. Disproportional gender-wise attitudes towards HIV/AIDS control measures play a key role in reducing the Kenyan youth HIV/AIDS prevalence trends. The female youth HIV/AIDS prevalence trend seems to be directly linked to increased male infectivity with decreased female infectivity while the male youth prevalence trend seems to be directly associated with increased female infectivity and reduced male infectivity.

摘要

我们构建了一个性结构确定性模型，以研究在肯尼亚，青少年女孩和年轻妇女（AGYW）以及青少年男孩和年轻男性（ABYM）人群中，艾滋病毒检测率、 condom 使用率和抗逆转录病毒治疗（ART）依从率的变化对艾滋病的影响。我们考虑了影响肯尼亚青年艾滋病毒/艾滋病控制措施的正反两方面的态度。我们使用 2012 年肯尼亚艾滋病指标调查（KAIS）微观数据构建了我们的模型，并将其拟合到 UNAIDS-肯尼亚青年流行率估计值，以了解影响肯尼亚青年艾滋病毒/艾滋病流行趋势的因素。虽然高效的综合控制方法显著降低了青年中的艾滋病毒/艾滋病流行率，但如果继续存在感染不知情的性接触，该疾病仍将持续存在。对艾滋病毒/艾滋病控制措施的性别差异态度在降低肯尼亚青年艾滋病毒/艾滋病流行趋势方面起着关键作用。女性青年艾滋病毒/艾滋病流行趋势似乎与男性传染性增加而女性传染性降低直接相关，而男性青年流行趋势似乎与女性传染性增加和男性传染性降低直接相关。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5111/7671564/2326c3890182/pone.0242491.g014.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5111/7671564/71e7d6156d04/pone.0242491.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5111/7671564/695720de8bb3/pone.0242491.g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5111/7671564/f5e376783e39/pone.0242491.g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5111/7671564/9a3b9d1b6610/pone.0242491.g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5111/7671564/ac784e12a346/pone.0242491.g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5111/7671564/e0ae3419d1ae/pone.0242491.g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5111/7671564/4289badd97c6/pone.0242491.g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5111/7671564/951c4921e91f/pone.0242491.g008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5111/7671564/8b0bb4c36251/pone.0242491.g009.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5111/7671564/336f44ed22b1/pone.0242491.g010.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5111/7671564/eb8292021a85/pone.0242491.g011.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5111/7671564/3b749f25e6b6/pone.0242491.g012.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5111/7671564/e381cfa3e136/pone.0242491.g013.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5111/7671564/2326c3890182/pone.0242491.g014.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5111/7671564/71e7d6156d04/pone.0242491.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5111/7671564/695720de8bb3/pone.0242491.g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5111/7671564/f5e376783e39/pone.0242491.g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5111/7671564/9a3b9d1b6610/pone.0242491.g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5111/7671564/ac784e12a346/pone.0242491.g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5111/7671564/e0ae3419d1ae/pone.0242491.g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5111/7671564/4289badd97c6/pone.0242491.g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5111/7671564/951c4921e91f/pone.0242491.g008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5111/7671564/8b0bb4c36251/pone.0242491.g009.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5111/7671564/336f44ed22b1/pone.0242491.g010.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5111/7671564/eb8292021a85/pone.0242491.g011.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5111/7671564/3b749f25e6b6/pone.0242491.g012.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5111/7671564/e381cfa3e136/pone.0242491.g013.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5111/7671564/2326c3890182/pone.0242491.g014.jpg

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