Department of Social Sciences, Business Economics, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Subdivision Consumer and Chain, Wageningen Economic Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Parasit Vectors. 2020 Nov 23;13(1):589. doi: 10.1186/s13071-020-04458-8.
Illegal use of fipronil as an insecticide in 2017 has caused substantial damage to Dutch laying hen farms. We assessed how the fipronil crisis has affected the financial performance of affected farms as well as unaffected farms. While affected farms faced culling their flocks and lost revenue, unaffected farms benefitted from temporary high egg prices.
A three-step normative modelling approach is taken using financial statements and a partial budget. The estimations are for a 50,000 laying hen farm facing the fipronil crisis for 5 months. First, a baseline is created by generating an income statement of this laying hen farm representing a 'normal year'. Second, incremental costs and revenue as a result of the fipronil crisis are estimated. Third, the baseline income statement is updated with the outcomes of the partial budget. This results in two additional income statements that report the net operating result of this farm being unaffected and affected by the fipronil crisis.
While in a normal year this average-sized farm has a net operating result of around 18,000 euros, profitability was estimated to be - 369,000 euros and + 169,000 euros for the affected and unaffected farm due to the crisis respectively. For affected farms, impacts were especially high as there was no government compensation or insurance.
As Dutch farms typically operate as independent family farms, there was also no compensation from other chain actors. The affected farms therefore likely have faced financial distress and have had to increase debt or use their financial reserves for household consumption and restarting the business. Outcomes contribute to discussions around liability claims and cost-benefit assessments of measures to improve the chain food safety and rapid alert systems.
2017 年，氟虫腈被非法用作杀虫剂，对荷兰蛋鸡养殖场造成了巨大损失。我们评估了氟虫腈危机对受影响农场和未受影响农场的财务业绩的影响。受影响的农场不得不扑杀鸡群，损失了收入，而未受影响的农场则受益于暂时的高鸡蛋价格。
采用三步规范建模方法，使用财务报表和部分预算。估计适用于一个面临氟虫腈危机 5 个月的 5 万只蛋鸡养殖场。首先，通过生成一个代表“正常年份”的蛋鸡养殖场的损益表来创建一个基线。其次，估计氟虫腈危机导致的增量成本和收入。第三，用部分预算的结果更新基线损益表。这产生了另外两份损益表，报告了该养殖场不受氟虫腈危机影响和受其影响的净经营结果。
在正常年份，这个中等规模的农场的净经营结果约为 18000 欧元，但由于危机，受影响和未受影响的农场的盈利能力分别估计为-369000 欧元和+169000 欧元。对于受影响的农场，由于没有政府补偿或保险，影响尤其严重。
由于荷兰农场通常作为独立的家庭农场运营，其他连锁企业也没有提供补偿。因此，受影响的农场可能面临财务困境，不得不增加债务或动用财务储备金用于家庭消费和重启业务。研究结果有助于讨论责任索赔和提高供应链食品安全和快速预警系统的成本效益评估。
