Center for Environmental Systems Research (CESR), University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany.
PLoS One. 2020 Nov 25;15(11):e0225914. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0225914. eCollection 2020.
The ongoing trend toward agricultural intensification in Southern Amazonia makes it essential to explore the future impacts of this development on the extent of natural habitats and biodiversity. This type of analysis requires information on future pathways of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) under different socio-economic conditions and policy settings. For this purpose, the spatially explicit land-use change model LandSHIFT was applied to calculate a set of high-resolution land-use change scenarios for the Brazilian states Para and Mato Grosso. The period of the analysis were the years 2010-2030. The resulting land-use maps were combined with maps depicting vertebrate species diversity in order to examine the impact of natural habitat loss on species ranges as well as the overall LULCC-induced effect on vertebrate diversity as expressed by the Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII). The results of this study indicate a general decrease in biodiversity intactness in all investigated scenarios. However, agricultural intensification combined with diversified environmental protection policies show least impact of LULCC on vertebrate species richness and conservation of natural habitats compared to scenarios with low agricultural intensification or scenarios with less effective conservation policies.
在南亚马逊地区，农业集约化的持续趋势使得探索这种发展对自然栖息地和生物多样性范围的未来影响变得至关重要。这种分析需要有关在不同社会经济条件和政策设定下未来土地利用和土地覆盖变化（LULCC）途径的信息。为此，应用了具有空间明确性的土地利用变化模型 LandSHIFT，以计算巴西帕拉州和马托格罗索州一系列高分辨率的土地利用变化情景。分析的时间段为 2010 年至 2030 年。将得出的土地利用图与描绘脊椎动物物种多样性的地图相结合，以检查自然栖息地丧失对物种范围的影响，以及生物多样性完整指数（BII）所表达的整体 LULCC 对脊椎动物多样性的影响。这项研究的结果表明，在所有调查的情景中，生物多样性完整度普遍下降。然而，与农业集约化程度较低的情景或保护政策效果较差的情景相比，农业集约化与多样化的环境保护政策相结合，对脊椎动物物种丰富度和自然栖息地保护的 LULCC 影响最小。
