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开发并验证中国人群非创伤性股骨头坏死概率预测列线图。

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting the probability of nontraumatic osteonecrosis of the femoral head in Chinese population.

机构信息

Department of Orthopedics, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Artificial Joints Engineering and Technology Research Center of Jiangxi Province, Nanchang, 330006, Jiangxi province, China.

Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Jiangxi Institute of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Nanchang, 330006, Jiangxi province, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2020 Nov 26;10(1):20660. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-77693-9.

Abstract

Although corticosteroids and alcohol are two major risk factors for nontraumatic osteonecrosis of the femoral head (NONFH), the effects of other factors have rarely been studied, thereby making early diagnosis and treatment of NONFH difficult. This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram to NONFH, but patients with alcohol- and steroid-related NONFH are not at all taken into account in this study. A training cohort of 790 patients (n = 434, NONFH; n = 356, femoral neck fractures [non-NONFH]) diagnosed in our hospital from January 2011 to December 2016 was used for model development. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso) regression model was used for date dimension reduction and optimal predictor selection. A predictive model was developed from univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Performance characterisation of the resulting nomogram included calibration, discriminatory ability, and clinical usefulness. After internal validation, the nomogram was further evaluated in a separate cohort of 300 consecutive patients included between January 2017 and December 2018. The simple prediction nomogram included five predictors from univariate and multivariate analyses, including gender, total cholesterol levels, triglyceride levels, white blood cell count, and platelet count. Internal validation showed that the model had good discrimination [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.80] and calibration. Good discrimination (AUC = 0.81) and calibration were preserved in the validation cohort. Decision curve analysis showed that the predictive nomogram was clinically useful. The simple diagnostic nomogram, which combines demographic data and laboratory blood test results, was able to quantify the probability of NONFH in cases of early screening and diagnosis.

摘要

虽然皮质类固醇和酒精是导致非创伤性股骨头坏死(NONFH)的两个主要危险因素,但其他因素的影响很少被研究,从而使 NONFH 的早期诊断和治疗变得困难。本研究旨在开发和验证一个针对 NONFH 的列线图,但本研究完全没有考虑到与酒精和类固醇相关的 NONFH 患者。我们医院于 2011 年 1 月至 2016 年 12 月期间诊断的一个包含 790 名患者的训练队列(n=434,NONFH;n=356,股骨颈骨折[非 NONFH])用于模型开发。使用最小绝对收缩和选择算子(lasso)回归模型进行数据维度减少和最佳预测因子选择。从单变量和多变量逻辑回归分析中开发了一个预测模型。生成的列线图的性能特征包括校准、判别能力和临床实用性。内部验证后,该列线图在 2017 年 1 月至 2018 年 12 月期间纳入的 300 名连续患者的独立队列中进行了进一步评估。简单预测列线图包括单变量和多变量分析中的五个预测因子,包括性别、总胆固醇水平、甘油三酯水平、白细胞计数和血小板计数。内部验证表明该模型具有良好的判别能力[接受者操作特征曲线下面积(AUC)=0.80]和校准。验证队列中保持了良好的判别(AUC=0.81)和校准。决策曲线分析表明预测列线图具有临床实用性。该简单的诊断列线图结合了人口统计学数据和实验室血液测试结果,能够在早期筛查和诊断时量化 NONFH 的概率。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4f4d/7691506/eadb70db16a7/41598_2020_77693_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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