Shao Xiaoliang, Li Xianting
School of Civil and Resource Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China.
Department of Building Science, School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
Phys Fluids (1994). 2020 Nov 1;32(11):115125. doi: 10.1063/5.0032847.
The infection risks of Biden, Wallace, and the audience by Trump and the first lady were assessed during the first presidential debate. The debate scene was established numerically, and two cases, i.e., only Trump being infected and both Trump and the first lady being infected, were set up for risk analysis. The infection probabilities at different positions were assessed by using the Wells-Riley equation with consideration of the effects of air distribution and face mask. It was concluded that (1) the infection risks of Biden and Wallace were lower due to the reasonable distance from Trump, with the maximum probability of 0.34% at 40 quanta/h for both Trump and the first lady being infected; (2) the infection probabilities in the audience area were lower for the long distance from the debate stage, with the maximum probability of 0.35%. Wearing masks resulted in a notable decrease in the infection probability to 0.09%; and (3) there was a certain local area surrounding Trump and the first lady with a relatively greater infection probability. The preliminary analysis provides some reference for protection of the next presidential debate and other public events.
在第一场总统辩论期间，评估了拜登、华莱士以及观众被特朗普和第一夫人感染的风险。辩论场景通过数值方式设定，并针对风险分析设置了两种情况，即仅特朗普被感染以及特朗普和第一夫人都被感染。考虑到空气分布和口罩的影响，使用威尔斯 - 莱利方程评估了不同位置的感染概率。得出以下结论：（1）由于与特朗普保持了合理距离，拜登和华莱士的感染风险较低，当特朗普和第一夫人都被感染且散发量为40个量子/小时时，最大感染概率为0.34%；（2）观众区域因距离辩论台较远，感染概率较低，最大概率为0.35%。佩戴口罩使感染概率显著降低至0.09%；（3）在特朗普和第一夫人周围存在一定局部区域，感染概率相对较高。该初步分析为下一次总统辩论及其他公共活动的防护提供了一些参考。
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