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考古学、人口学和生命史理论可以共同帮助我们解释过去和现在的人口模式。

Archaeology, demography and life history theory together can help us explain past and present population patterns.

机构信息

Department of Institute of Archaeology, University College London, London, UK.

Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK.

出版信息

Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2021 Jan 18;376(1816):20190711. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2019.0711. Epub 2020 Nov 30.

Abstract

Population matters. Demographic patterns are both a cause and a consequence of human behaviour in other important domains, such as subsistence, cooperation, politics and culture. Demographers interested in contemporary and recent historical populations have rich data at their fingertips; the importance of demography means many interested parties have gathered demographic data, much of which is now readily available for all to explore. Those interested in the demography of the distant past are not so fortunate, given the lack of written records. Nevertheless, the emergence in recent years of a new interest in the demography of ancient populations has seen the development of a range of new methods for piecing together archaeological, skeletal and DNA evidence to reconstruct past population patterns. These efforts have found evidence in support of the view that the relatively low long-term population growth rates of prehistoric human populations, albeit ultimately conditioned by carrying capacities, may have been owing to 'boom-bust' cycles at the regional level; rapid population growth, followed by population decline. In fact, this archaeological research may have come to the same conclusion as some contemporary demographers: that demography can be remarkably hard to predict, at least in the short term. It also fits with evidence from biology that primates, and particularly humans, may be adapted to environmental variability, leading to associated demographic stochasticity. This evidence of the fluctuating nature of human demographic patterns may be of considerable significance in understanding our species' evolution, and of understanding what our species future demographic trajectories might be. This article is part of the theme issue 'Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography'.

摘要

人口问题至关重要。人口模式不仅是人类在其他重要领域(如生存、合作、政治和文化)行为的原因,也是其结果。对当代和近代人口感兴趣的人口统计学家手头有丰富的数据;人口统计学的重要性意味着许多有兴趣的各方都收集了人口统计数据,其中许多现在都可以供所有人探索。对于遥远过去的人口统计学感兴趣的人就没有那么幸运了,因为缺乏书面记录。尽管如此,近年来人们对古代人口统计学的新兴趣的出现,使得人们开发出了一系列新的方法来拼凑考古、骨骼和 DNA 证据,以重建过去的人口模式。这些努力在支持以下观点方面找到了证据,即史前人类人口的长期增长率相对较低,尽管最终受到承载能力的限制,但可能是由于区域水平的“繁荣-萧条”周期;人口快速增长,随后人口下降。事实上,这项考古研究可能得出了与一些当代人口统计学家相同的结论:人口统计学很难预测,至少在短期内是这样。这也符合生物学证据,即灵长类动物,特别是人类,可能适应环境变化,从而导致相关的人口随机性。人类人口模式波动性质的这一证据,对于理解我们物种的进化以及我们物种未来的人口轨迹可能是什么,具有相当重要的意义。本文是主题为“史前人口统计学的跨学科方法”的一部分。

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