Fitzhugh Ben, Brown William A, Misarti Nicole, Takase Katsunori, Tremayne Andrew H
University of Washington, Department of Anthropology, 314 Denny Hall, Box 353100, Seattle, WA. 98195-3100.
University of Washington, Department of Statistics, Box 354322 Seattle, WA 98195-4322.
Quat Res. 2022 Jul;108(PESAS):123-149. doi: 10.1017/qua.2022.35. Epub 2022 Aug 5.
Using 14 proxy human population time series from around the North Pacific (Alaska, Hokkaido and the Kuril Islands), we evaluate the possibility that the North Pacific climate and marine ecosystem includes a millennial-scale regime shift cycle affecting subsistence and migration. We develop both visual and statistical methods for addressing questions about relative population growth and movement in the past. We introduce and explore the use of a Time Iterative Moran I (TIMI) spatial autocorrelation method to compare time series trends quantitatively - a method that could prove useful in other paleoecological analyses. Results reveal considerable population dynamism around the North Pacific in the last 5000 years and strengthen a previously reported inverse correlation between Northeast and Northwest Pacific proxy population indices. Visual and TIMI analyses suggest multiple, overlapping explanations for the variability, including the potential that oscillating ecological regime shifts affect the North Pacific basin. These results provide an opening for coordinated research to unpack the interrelated social, cultural and environmental dynamics around the subarctic and arctic North Pacific at different spatial and temporal scales by international teams of archaeologists, historians, paleoecologists, paleoceanographers, paleoclimatologists, modelers and data management specialists.
利用来自北太平洋周边地区（阿拉斯加、北海道和千岛群岛）的14个代理人类种群时间序列，我们评估了北太平洋气候和海洋生态系统包含一个影响生计和迁徙的千年尺度状态转变周期的可能性。我们开发了视觉和统计方法来解决有关过去相对人口增长和迁移的问题。我们引入并探索使用时间迭代莫兰指数（TIMI）空间自相关方法来定量比较时间序列趋势——这种方法可能在其他古生态分析中证明有用。结果揭示了过去5000年北太平洋周边地区显著的人口动态，并强化了先前报道的东北太平洋和西北太平洋代理人口指数之间的负相关关系。视觉和TIMI分析为这种变异性提供了多种重叠的解释，包括振荡的生态状态转变可能影响北太平洋盆地的可能性。这些结果为国际考古学家、历史学家、古生态学家、古海洋学家、古气候学家、建模人员和数据管理专家团队开展协调研究提供了契机，以便在不同的时空尺度上剖析北极和亚北极北太平洋周边地区相互关联的社会、文化和环境动态。
