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低降雨气候下为替代释放提供信息的时空建模

Spatio-Temporal Modelling Informing Replacement Releases in a Low Rainfall Climate.

作者信息

Pagendam Dan, Elfekih Samia, Nassar Majed S, Nelson Samuel, Almalik Abdulaziz M, Tawfik Essam A, Al-Fageeh Mohamed B, Hoffmann Ary A

机构信息

CSIRO Data61, Dutton Park, Brisbane, QLD 4101, Australia.

CSIRO H&B, Australian Centre for Disease Preparedness (ACDP), Geelong, VIC 3052, Australia.

出版信息

Insects. 2022 Oct 18;13(10):949. doi: 10.3390/insects13100949.

DOI:10.3390/insects13100949
PMID:36292897
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9604250/
Abstract

Releases of carrying bacteria are known to suppress arbovirus transmission and reduce the incidence of vector-borne diseases. In planning for releases in the arid environment of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, we collected entomological data with ovitraps across a 7-month period in four locations. Herein, we show that mosquito presence in basements does not differ from that of non-basement areas of buildings. In modelling mosquito presence across the study sites, we found the spatial structure to be statistically significant in one of the four sites, while a significant spatial structure was found for egg production data across three of the four sites. The length scales of the spatial covariance functions fitted to the egg production data ranged from 143 m to 574 m, indicating that high productivity regions can be extensive in size. Rank-correlation analyses indicated that mosquito presence tended to persist from the dry to wet season, but that egg production ranks at locations could reverse. The data suggest that, in Jeddah, the quality of the local environment for breeding can vary over time. The data support the feasibility of dry season releases but with release numbers needing to be flexible depending on local rates of invasion.

摘要

已知携带细菌的释放物可抑制虫媒病毒传播并降低媒介传播疾病的发病率。在规划于沙特阿拉伯吉达干旱环境中进行释放时,我们在四个地点通过诱蚊产卵器收集了7个月的昆虫学数据。在此,我们表明地下室中蚊子的存在情况与建筑物的非地下室区域并无差异。在对研究地点的蚊子存在情况进行建模时,我们发现四个地点中的一个地点的空间结构具有统计学意义,而在四个地点中的三个地点的产卵数据发现了显著的空间结构。拟合到产卵数据的空间协方差函数的长度尺度范围为143米至574米,这表明高生产力区域的规模可能很大。等级相关分析表明,蚊子的存在往往从旱季持续到雨季,但地点的产卵等级可能会颠倒。数据表明,在吉达,当地繁殖环境的质量可能随时间变化。这些数据支持旱季释放的可行性,但释放数量需要根据当地的入侵率灵活调整。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4563/9604250/9f6df276835e/insects-13-00949-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4563/9604250/5abcaa818618/insects-13-00949-g0A1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4563/9604250/71640a14d4d5/insects-13-00949-g0A2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4563/9604250/3edc8c358c84/insects-13-00949-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4563/9604250/5238f831eabd/insects-13-00949-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4563/9604250/5991c912a56f/insects-13-00949-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4563/9604250/cb8d31d5dd01/insects-13-00949-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4563/9604250/9f6df276835e/insects-13-00949-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4563/9604250/5abcaa818618/insects-13-00949-g0A1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4563/9604250/71640a14d4d5/insects-13-00949-g0A2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4563/9604250/3edc8c358c84/insects-13-00949-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4563/9604250/5238f831eabd/insects-13-00949-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4563/9604250/5991c912a56f/insects-13-00949-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4563/9604250/cb8d31d5dd01/insects-13-00949-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4563/9604250/9f6df276835e/insects-13-00949-g005.jpg

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