Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, P.O. Box 24144, Doha, Qatar.
World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine -Qatar, Doha, Qatar.
Sci Rep. 2020 Dec 3;10(1):21001. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-77970-7.
We aimed to characterize the type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) epidemic and the role of key risk factors in Jordan between 1990-2050, and to forecast the T2DM-related costs. A recently-developed population-level T2DM mathematical model was adapted and applied to Jordan. The model was fitted to six population-based survey data collected between 1990 and 2017. T2DM prevalence was 14.0% in 1990, and projected to be 16.0% in 2020, and 20.6% in 2050. The total predicted number of T2DM cases were 218,326 (12,313 were new cases) in 1990, 702,326 (36,941 were new cases) in 2020, and 1.9 million (79,419 were new cases) in 2050. Out of Jordan's total health expenditure, 19.0% in 1990, 21.1% in 2020, and 25.2% in 2050 was forecasted to be spent on T2DM. The proportion of T2DM incident cases attributed to obesity was 55.6% in 1990, 59.5% in 2020, and 62.6% in 2050. Meanwhile, the combined contribution of smoking and physical inactivity hovered around 5% between 1990 and 2050. Jordan's T2DM epidemic is predicted to grow sizably in the next three decades, driven by population ageing and high and increasing obesity levels. The national strategy to prevent T2DM needs to be strengthened by focusing it on preventive interventions targeting T2DM and key risk factors.
我们旨在描述 1990-2050 年期间约旦 2 型糖尿病（T2DM）的流行情况以及主要危险因素的作用，并预测 T2DM 相关成本。我们对一种新开发的人群水平 T2DM 数学模型进行了调整，并将其应用于约旦。该模型适用于 1990 年至 2017 年期间收集的六项基于人群的调查数据。1990 年 T2DM 患病率为 14.0%，预计 2020 年将达到 16.0%，2050 年将达到 20.6%。1990 年预测的 T2DM 病例总数为 218326 例（新发病例为 12313 例），2020 年将达到 702326 例（新发病例为 36941 例），2050 年将达到 190 万例（新发病例为 79419 例）。约旦总卫生支出中，1990 年为 19.0%，2020 年为 21.1%，2050 年为 25.2%预计将用于 T2DM。1990 年肥胖导致的 T2DM 发病比例为 55.6%，2020 年为 59.5%，2050 年为 62.6%。同时，吸烟和缺乏身体活动的综合贡献率在 1990 年至 2050 年期间徘徊在 5%左右。在未来三十年，随着人口老龄化和肥胖水平的升高，约旦的 T2DM 疫情预计将大幅增长。预防 T2DM 的国家战略需要通过重点关注针对 T2DM 和主要危险因素的预防干预措施来加强。
