Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar.
World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Doha, Qatar.
J Diabetes Investig. 2021 Jul;12(7):1162-1174. doi: 10.1111/jdi.13452. Epub 2020 Nov 27.
AIMS/INTRODUCTION: To investigate and forecast type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic, its related risk factors and cost in Oman by 2050.
An age-structured mathematical model was used to characterize type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemiology and trends in Oman between 1990 and 2050. The model was parametrized using current and quality data, including six nationally representative population-based epidemiological surveys for type 2 diabetes mellitus and its key risk factors.
The projected type 2 diabetes mellitus prevalence increased from 15.2% in 2020 to 23.8% in 2050. The prevalence increased from 16.8 and 13.8% in 2020 among women and men to 26.3 and 21.4% in 2050, respectively. In 2020, 190,489 Omanis were living with type 2 diabetes mellitus compared with 570,227 in 2050. The incidence rate per 1,000 person-years changed from 8.3 in 2020 to 12.1 in 2050. Type 2 diabetes mellitus' share of Oman's national health expenditure grew by 36% between 2020 and 2050 (from 21.2 to 28.8%). Obesity explained 56.7% of type 2 diabetes mellitus cases in 2020 and 71.4% in 2050, physical inactivity explained 4.3% in 2020 and 2.7% in 2050, whereas smoking accounted for <1% of type 2 diabetes mellitus cases throughout 2020-2050. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses affirmed these predictions.
The type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic in Oman is expected to increase significantly over the next three decades, consuming nearly one-third of the national health expenditure. The type 2 diabetes mellitus burden is heavily influenced by obesity. Interventions targeting this single risk factor should be a national priority to reduce and control the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Oman.
目的/引言：本研究旨在调查和预测 2050 年之前，阿曼 2 型糖尿病的流行情况、相关危险因素和成本。
本研究采用年龄结构的数学模型来描述 1990 年至 2050 年阿曼 2 型糖尿病的流行病学和趋势。该模型通过当前和高质量的数据进行参数化，包括 6 项具有代表性的全国性 2 型糖尿病及其关键危险因素的流行病学调查。
预计 2050 年 2 型糖尿病的患病率将从 2020 年的 15.2%上升至 23.8%。2020 年，女性和男性的患病率分别从 16.8%和 13.8%上升至 26.3%和 21.4%。2020 年，阿曼有 190489 人患有 2 型糖尿病，而 2050 年将有 570227 人。每 1000 人年的发病率从 2020 年的 8.3 人上升至 2050 年的 12.1 人。2020 年至 2050 年，2 型糖尿病在阿曼国家卫生支出中所占的份额增长了 36%（从 21.2%增长至 28.8%）。2020 年，肥胖解释了 56.7%的 2 型糖尿病病例，2050 年则解释了 71.4%；2020 年，身体活动不足解释了 4.3%的病例，2050 年则解释了 2.7%；而吸烟在 2020 年至 2050 年期间仅占 2 型糖尿病病例的不到 1%。敏感性和不确定性分析证实了这些预测。
阿曼的 2 型糖尿病流行预计将在未来三十年显著增加，几乎消耗三分之一的国家卫生支出。2 型糖尿病的负担主要受肥胖影响。针对这一单一危险因素的干预措施应成为国家的重点，以减少和控制阿曼 2 型糖尿病的负担。
