Omotilewa Oluwatoba J, Ricker-Gilbert Jacob, Ainembabazi John Herbert
Development Economics Data Group at the World Bank.
Agricultural Economics at Purdue University.
Am J Agric Econ. 2019 Feb 21;101(3):753-772. doi: 10.1093/ajae/aay108.
This article addresses the question of whether subsidizing an entirely new agricultural technology for smallholder farmers can aid its adoption early in the diffusion process. Based on a theoretical framework for technology adoption under subjective uncertainty, we implemented a randomized field experiment among 1,200 smallholders in Uganda to estimate the extent to which subsidizing an improved grain storage bag crowds-out or crowds-in commercial buying of the technology. The empirical results show that on average, subsidized households are more likely to buy an additional bag at commercial prices relative to the households with no subsidy who are equally aware of the technology. This suggests that under certain circumstances, such as when there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of a new agricultural technology, and the private sector market for the technology is weak or nascent, a one-time use of subsidy to build awareness and reduce risk can help generate demand for the new technology and thus crowd-in commercial demand for it. In this context, a subsidy can allow farmers to experiment with the technology and learn from the experience before investing in it. JEL codes: C23, C93, O33, Q12, Q18.
本文探讨了为小农户补贴一项全新农业技术是否有助于在技术传播初期促进其采用的问题。基于主观不确定性下技术采用的理论框架，我们在乌干达的1200名小农户中开展了一项随机实地实验，以估计补贴一种改良型谷物储存袋在多大程度上挤出或吸引了对该技术的商业购买。实证结果表明，平均而言，与同样知晓该技术但未获补贴的农户相比，获得补贴的农户更有可能按商业价格额外购买一个袋子。这表明，在某些情况下，比如当一项新农业技术的有效性存在不确定性，且该技术的私营部门市场薄弱或尚处于萌芽阶段时，一次性使用补贴来提高认知度和降低风险有助于创造对新技术的需求，从而吸引对其的商业需求。在此背景下，补贴可以让农民在投资该技术之前先试用并从经验中学习。《经济文献杂志》分类号：C23、C93、O33、Q12、Q18。
