Dupas Pascaline
Dept. of Economics, Stanford University, 579 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA 94305, U.S.A.;
Econometrica. 2014 Jan;82(1):197-228. doi: 10.3982/ECTA9508.
Short-run subsidies for health products are common in poor countries. How do they affect long-run adoption? A common fear among development practitioners is that one-off subsidies may negatively affect long-run adoption through reference-dependence: People might anchor around the subsidized price and be unwilling to pay more for the product later. But for experience goods, one-off subsidies could also boost long-run adoption through learning. This paper uses data from a two-stage randomized pricing experiment in Kenya to estimate the relative importance of these effects for a new, improved antimalarial bed net. Reduced form estimates show that a one-time subsidy has a positive impact on willingness to pay a year later inherit. To separately identify the learning and anchoring effects, we estimate a parsimonious experience-good model. Estimation results show a large, positive learning effect but no anchoring. We black then discuss the types of products and the contexts inherit for which these results may apply.
在贫穷国家，对保健产品的短期补贴很常见。它们如何影响长期采用情况呢？发展从业者普遍担心的是，一次性补贴可能会通过参照依赖对长期采用产生负面影响：人们可能会以补贴价格为参照，日后不愿为该产品支付更高价格。但对于经验商品而言，一次性补贴也可能通过学习促进长期采用。本文利用肯尼亚一项两阶段随机定价实验的数据，来估计这些影响对于一种新型改良抗疟蚊帐的相对重要性。简化形式估计表明，一次性补贴对一年后的支付意愿有积极影响。为了分别识别学习效应和参照效应，我们估计了一个简约的经验商品模型。估计结果显示出很大的积极学习效应，但没有参照效应。然后我们讨论了这些结果可能适用的产品类型和背景情况。
