Department of Enterprise Engineering, Tor Vergata University of Rome, 00133 Rome, Italy.
Department of Biomedicine and Prevention, Tor Vergata University of Rome, 00133 Rome, Italy.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Dec 4;17(23):9059. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17239059.
Following the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, several studies have examined the possibility of correlating the virulence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, to the climatic conditions of the involved sites; however, inconclusive results have been generally obtained. Although neither air temperature nor humidity can be independently correlated with virus viability, a strong relationship between SARS-CoV-2 virulence and the specific enthalpy of moist air appears to exist, as confirmed by extensive data analysis. Given this framework, the present study involves a detailed investigation based on the first 20-30 days of the epidemic before public health interventions in 30 selected Italian provinces with rather different climates, here assumed as being representative of what happened in the country from North to South, of the relationship between COVID-19 distributions and the climatic conditions recorded at each site before the pandemic outbreak. Accordingly, a correlating equation between the incidence rate at the early stage of the epidemic and the foregoing average specific enthalpy of atmospheric air was developed, and an enthalpy-based seasonal virulence risk scale was proposed to predict the potential danger of COVID-19 outbreak due to the persistence of weather conditions favorable to SARS-CoV-2 viability. As an early detection tool, an unambiguous risk chart expressed in terms of coupled temperatures and relative humidity (RH) values was provided, showing that safer conditions occur in the case of higher RHs at the highest temperatures, and of lower RHs at the lowest temperatures. Despite the complex determinism and dynamics of the pandemic and the related caveats, the restriction of the study to its early stage allowed the proposed risk scale to result in agreement with the available infectivity data highlighted in the literature for a number of cities around the world.
继 2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行之后，多项研究都试图探讨导致 COVID-19 的严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2（SARS-CoV-2）的毒力与所涉地点的气候条件之间的相关性，但一般都得到了不确定的结果。虽然空气温度和湿度都不能与病毒的存活能力独立相关，但 SARS-CoV-2 的毒力与潮湿空气的特定焓之间似乎存在很强的关系，这一点通过广泛的数据分析得到了证实。基于这一框架，本研究涉及对意大利 30 个具有不同气候的选定省份在采取公共卫生干预措施之前的 COVID-19 疫情前 20-30 天的详细调查，这些省份可以代表疫情从北到南在意大利的整体情况，以及 COVID-19 分布与大流行前各地区记录的气候条件之间的关系。因此，针对大流行前早期阶段的流行率与上述大气空气平均比焓之间的关系，建立了一个相关方程，并提出了基于焓的季节性毒力风险等级，以预测有利于 SARS-CoV-2 存活的天气条件持续时 COVID-19 爆发的潜在危险。作为一种早期检测工具，提供了一个以耦合温度和相对湿度（RH）值表示的明确风险图表，表明在最高温度下 RH 较高且最低温度下 RH 较低的情况下，情况更为安全。尽管大流行及其相关警告的复杂确定性和动态性，但将研究限制在早期阶段，使得所提出的风险等级与文献中突出的全球多个城市的可感染性数据相吻合。
