Nicastro Fabrizio, Sironi Giorgia, Antonello Elio, Bianco Andrea, Biasin Mara, Brucato John R, Ermolli Ilaria, Pareschi Giovanni, Salvati Marta, Tozzi Paolo, Trabattoni Daria, Clerici Mario
Italian National Institute for Astrophysics (INAF) - Rome Astronomical Observatory, Monte Porzio Catone, Rome, RM 00078, Italy.
Italian National Institute for Astrophysics (INAF) - Brera Astronomical Observatory, Milano/Merate, MI 20121, Italy.
iScience. 2020 Oct 23;23(10):101605. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2020.101605. Epub 2020 Sep 24.
Seasonality of acute viral respiratory diseases is a well-known and yet not fully understood phenomenon. Several models have been proposed to explain the regularity of yearly recurring outbreaks and the phase differences observed at different latitudes on the Earth. Such models consider known internal causes, primarily the periodic emergence of new virus variants that evade the host immune response. Yet, this alone is generally unable to explain the regularity of recurrences and the observed phase differences. Here we show that seasonality of viral respiratory diseases, as well as its distribution with latitude on the Earth, can be fully explained by the virucidal properties of UV-B and UV-A solar photons through a daily, minute-scale, resonant forcing mechanism. Such an induced periodicity can last, virtually unperturbed, from tens to hundreds of cycles, and even in the presence of internal dynamics (host's loss of immunity) much slower than seasonal will, on a long period, generate seasonal oscillations.
急性病毒性呼吸道疾病的季节性是一个广为人知但尚未完全理解的现象。已经提出了几种模型来解释每年反复爆发的规律性以及在地球不同纬度观察到的相位差异。这些模型考虑了已知的内部原因，主要是逃避宿主免疫反应的新病毒变种的周期性出现。然而，仅此一点通常无法解释复发的规律性和观察到的相位差异。在这里，我们表明，病毒性呼吸道疾病的季节性及其在地球上随纬度的分布，可以通过UV-B和UV-A太阳光子的杀病毒特性，通过每日、分钟尺度的共振强迫机制得到充分解释。这种诱导的周期性可以持续，几乎不受干扰，从几十到几百个周期，即使存在比季节性慢得多的内部动态（宿主免疫力丧失），在很长一段时间内也会产生季节性振荡。
