Rehman Yasir, Rehman Nadia
Canadian Academy of Osteopathy, 66 Ottawa Street North, Canada.
AIMS Public Health. 2020 Nov 11;7(4):854-868. doi: 10.3934/publichealth.2020066. eCollection 2020.
Environmental factors such as wind, temperature, humidity, and sun exposure are known to affect influenza and viruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) transmissions. COVID-19 is a new pandemic with very little information available about its transmission and association with environmental factors. The goal of this paper is to explore the association of environmental factors on daily incidence rate, mortality rate, and recoveries of COVID-19.
The environmental data for humidity, temperature, wind, and sun exposure were recorded from metrological websites and COVID-19 data such as the daily incidence rate, death rate, and daily recovery were extracted from the government's official website available to the general public. The analysis for each outcome was adjusted for factors such as lock down status, nationwide events, and the number of daily tests performed. Analysis was completed with negative binominal regression log link using generalised linear modelling.
Daily temperature, sun exposure, wind, and humidity were not significantly associated with daily incidence rate. Temperature and nationwide social gatherings, although non-significant, showed trends towards a higher chance of incidence. An increase in the number of daily testing was significantly associated with higher COVID-19 incidences (effect size ranged from 2.17-9.96). No factors were significantly associated with daily death rates. Except for the province of Balochistan, a lower daily temperature was associated with a significantly higher daily recovery rate.
Environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, wind, and daily sun exposure were not consistently associated with COVID-19 incidence, death rates, or recovery. More policing about precautionary measures and ensuring diagnostic testing and accuracy are needed.
已知风、温度、湿度和阳光照射等环境因素会影响流感以及严重急性呼吸综合征（SARS）和中东呼吸综合征（MERS）等病毒的传播。新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）是一种新的大流行病，关于其传播以及与环境因素的关联，目前所知甚少。本文的目的是探讨环境因素与COVID-19每日发病率、死亡率和康复率之间的关联。
从气象网站记录湿度、温度、风和阳光照射等环境数据，并从政府向公众提供的官方网站提取COVID-19数据，如每日发病率、死亡率和每日康复人数。对每个结果的分析针对封锁状态、全国性事件和每日检测数量等因素进行了调整。使用广义线性模型通过负二项回归对数链接完成分析。
每日温度、阳光照射、风和湿度与每日发病率无显著关联。温度和全国性社交聚会虽然不显著，但显示出发病几率较高的趋势。每日检测数量的增加与COVID-19发病率较高显著相关（效应大小范围为2.17 - 9.96）。没有因素与每日死亡率显著相关。除俾路支省外，较低的每日温度与显著较高的每日康复率相关。
温度、湿度、风和每日阳光照射等环境因素与COVID-19的发病率、死亡率或康复情况并非始终相关。需要加强对预防措施的监管，并确保诊断检测及其准确性。
