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基于专家的风险排名框架,用于评估活饵鱼贸易中潜在病原体。

An expert-based risk ranking framework for assessing potential pathogens in the live baitfish trade.

机构信息

Minnesota Aquatic Invasive Species Research Center, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, USA.

Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, USA.

出版信息

Transbound Emerg Dis. 2021 Nov;68(6):3463-3473. doi: 10.1111/tbed.13951. Epub 2020 Dec 28.

DOI:10.1111/tbed.13951
PMID:33295097
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9290568/
Abstract

As global trade of live animals expands, there is increasing need to assess the risks of invasive organisms, including pathogens, that can accompany these translocations. The movement and release of live baitfish by recreational anglers has been identified as a particularly high-risk pathway for the spread of aquatic diseases in the United States. To provide risk-based decision support for preventing and managing disease invasions from baitfish release, we developed a hazard identification and ranking tool to identify the pathogens that pose the highest risk to wild fish via this pathway. We created a screening protocol and semi-quantitative stochastic risk ranking framework, combining published data with expert elicitation (n = 25) and applied the framework to identify high-priority pathogens for the bait supply in Minnesota, USA. Normalized scores were developed for seven risk criteria (likelihood of transfer, prevalence in bait supply, likelihood of colonization, current distribution, economic impact if established, ecological impact if established and host species) to characterize a pathogen's ability to persist in the bait supply and cause impacts to wild fish species of concern. The generalist macroparasite Schizocotyle acheilognathi was identified as presenting highest overall threat, followed by the microsporidian Ovipleistophora ovariae, and viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus. Our findings provide risk-based decision support for managers charged with maintaining both the recreational fishing industry and sustainable, healthy natural resources. Particularly, the identification of several high-risk but currently unregulated pathogens suggests that focusing risk management on pathogens of concern in all potential host species could reduce disease introduction risk. The ranking process, implemented here for a single state case study, provides a conceptual framework for integrating expert opinion and sparse available data that could be scaled up and applied across jurisdictions to inform risk-based management of the live baitfish pathway.

摘要

随着全球活物贸易的扩大,评估包括病原体在内的伴生入侵生物的风险的需求日益增加。休闲垂钓者移动和放生活诱饵鱼已被确定为美国水生疾病传播的高风险途径。为了提供基于风险的决策支持,以防止和管理因放生诱饵鱼而导致的疾病入侵,我们开发了一种危害识别和分级工具,以确定通过这种途径对野生鱼类构成最高风险的病原体。我们创建了筛选协议和半定量随机风险分级框架,结合了已发表的数据和专家意见(n=25),并应用该框架来识别美国明尼苏达州诱饵供应中具有高优先级的病原体。为七个风险标准(转移的可能性、诱饵供应中的流行率、定殖的可能性、当前分布、如果建立的经济影响、如果建立的生态影响和宿主物种)制定了归一化分数,以描述病原体在诱饵供应中持续存在并对野生鱼类造成影响的能力。多宿主大型寄生吸虫 Schizocotyle acheilognathi 被确定为总体威胁最大,其次是微孢子虫 Ovipleistophora ovariae 和病毒性出血性败血症病毒。我们的研究结果为负责维护休闲渔业和可持续、健康自然资源的管理者提供了基于风险的决策支持。特别是,确定了几种高风险但目前不受监管的病原体,这表明在所有潜在宿主物种中关注重点病原体的风险管理可以降低疾病传入的风险。这里实施的排名过程为单一州案例研究提供了一个概念框架,可用于整合专家意见和稀缺的可用数据,并可在整个管辖区内推广和应用,以告知基于风险的活诱饵鱼途径管理。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7738/9290568/5d9705bb7e8d/TBED-68-3463-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7738/9290568/f771b1a54a1b/TBED-68-3463-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7738/9290568/5985331b02eb/TBED-68-3463-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7738/9290568/5d9705bb7e8d/TBED-68-3463-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7738/9290568/f771b1a54a1b/TBED-68-3463-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7738/9290568/5985331b02eb/TBED-68-3463-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7738/9290568/5d9705bb7e8d/TBED-68-3463-g002.jpg

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