Beauvais Wendy, Zuther Steffen, Villeneuve Chantal, Kock Richard, Guitian Javier
Royal Veterinary College, Hatfield, UK.
Cornell University College of Veterinary Medicine, Ithaca, NY, USA.
R Soc Open Sci. 2019 Jan 16;6(1):181043. doi: 10.1098/rsos.181043. eCollection 2019 Jan.
Predicting the likelihood of rare events is increasingly demanded by risk managers. A key challenge is dealing with different types of uncertainty, including epistemic uncertainties (lack of knowledge), stochasticity (inherent randomness) and natural variation. One potentially catastrophic event which is impacted by high levels of all three of these uncertainty types is the transmission of livestock pathogens to wildlife, particularly for endangered species. There is often a lack of basic information, e.g. about a given pathogen's presence in local livestock populations or the susceptibility of a given wildlife species to infection by the pathogen. We adapted the OIE (World Organisation for Animal Health) risk assessment framework to rapidly assess and prioritize the risks of livestock pathogens for wildlife, taking account of epistemic uncertainties, stochasticity, seasonal movement of animals and interaction between different species at different spatial and temporal scales. We demonstrate the approach using the endangered saiga antelope () as a case study. We conclude that, in general, transmission events are likely to be rare and limited to small geographical areas; however, their impact could be high. spp. and foot-and-mouth disease virus are among those most likely to be transmitted from livestock to the Betpak-Dala saiga population.
风险管理者对预测罕见事件的可能性的需求日益增加。一个关键挑战是应对不同类型的不确定性，包括认知不确定性（知识不足）、随机性（内在随机性）和自然变异。受这三种高水平不确定性共同影响的一个潜在灾难性事件是家畜病原体向野生动物的传播，尤其是对于濒危物种而言。通常缺乏基本信息，例如关于特定病原体在当地家畜种群中的存在情况，或特定野生动物物种对该病原体感染的易感性。我们采用了世界动物卫生组织（OIE）的风险评估框架，以快速评估家畜病原体对野生动物的风险并确定其优先级，同时考虑认知不确定性、随机性、动物的季节性移动以及不同物种在不同空间和时间尺度上的相互作用。我们以濒危的赛加羚羊为例展示了该方法。我们得出结论，总体而言，传播事件可能很少发生且局限于小地理区域；然而，其影响可能很大。巴氏杆菌属物种和口蹄疫病毒是最有可能从家畜传播到别特帕克达拉赛加羚羊种群的病原体。
