Chen Y L, Wang H, Zhou Y N, Lu Z H, Peng M, Sun F, Huang Y H
Jiyuqiao Street Community Health Service Center of Wuchang District of Wuhan, Wuhan 430071, China.
Wuhan Wuchang District Health Bureau, Wuhan 430071, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2020 Oct 10;41(10):1616-1622. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200412-00565.
To analyzes epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 and provide evidence for adjustment for COVID-19 prevention and control strategies. The data of COVID-19 cases in Wuchang district reported as of 19 March, 2020 were obtained from National Notifiable Disease Report System of Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System. The software's of Excel 2010, SPSSS 22.0, Arc GIS10.2 and Joinpoint regression program 4.8.0.0 were used for statistical analysis. A total of 7547 COVID-19 cases had been reported as of 19 March, 2020 in Wuchang district, including 5 448 confirmed cases (72.19), 2009 clinical diagnosed cases (26.62) and 90 asymptomatic cases case (1.19). The age of the cases was (56.65±16.25) years and age ranged from 2 days to 105 years among confirmed cases, 2634 were males (48.35) and 2814 were females (51.65), 2 492 were retirees (45.74). A total of 545 health workers were infected with SARS-CoV-2 (7.22 of all cases) including 365 confirmed cases and 5 cases have died. A total of 430 cases of death were reported with case fatality rate of 7.89 (430/5 448), case fatality rate of males (10.9, 266/2 634) was higher than that of females (5.82, 164/2 814). The first phase of epidemic peak was from January 24 to January 26, the second phase of epidemic peak was from February 1 to February 5 and there was no one of new confirmed case in one day for the first time on March 18. The first four Streets with the highest incidence rates of confirmed cases were Huanghelou Street (1 043.77/100 000), Ziyang Street (627.97/100 000), Yangyuan Street (503.67/100 000) and Shuiguohu Street (486.02/100 000). Compared with females, aged ≤50 years and mild cases of clinical classification respectively, males (=0.690, 95: 0.322-1.478), aged >50 years (=11.745, 95: 6.878-20.058), severe cases (=2.317, 95: 1.789-3.000) and critical cases of clinical classification (=10.794, 95: 7.997-14.569), and gender time-dependent covariate (=1.392, 95: 1.053-1.840) were major influencing factors of prognosis of COVID-19 confirmed cases. The gender, ages and occupation of distribution were wide among COVID-19 cases in Wuchang district. Males, aged >50 years, severe cases and critical cases of clinical classification were influencing factors of prognosis of COVID-19 confirmed cases. The standardized management of discharged cases, asymptomatic infected cases and close contact persons were main measures to reduce incidence rates of COVID-19 cases.
分析新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）的流行病学特征，为调整COVID-19防控策略提供依据。收集中国疾病预防控制信息系统国家法定传染病报告系统中截至2020年3月19日武昌区COVID-19病例数据。采用Excel 2010、SPSS 22.0、Arc GIS 10.2软件及Joinpoint回归程序4.8.0.0进行统计分析。截至2020年3月19日，武昌区共报告COVID-19病例7547例，其中确诊病例5448例（72.19%），临床诊断病例2009例（26.62%），无症状感染者90例（1.19%）。确诊病例年龄为（56.65±16.25）岁，年龄范围为2天至105岁，男性2634例（48.35%），女性2814例（51.65%），退休人员2492例（45.74%）。共有545名医护人员感染严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）（占所有病例的7.22%），其中确诊病例365例，死亡5例。共报告死亡病例430例，病死率为7.89%（430/5448），男性病死率（10.9%，266/2634）高于女性（5.82%，164/2814）。疫情高峰期第一阶段为1月24日至1月26日，第二阶段为2月1日至2月5日，3月18日首次出现单日无新增确诊病例。确诊病例发病率最高的前四条街道为黄鹤楼街（1043.77/10万）、紫阳街（627.97/10万）、杨园街（503.67/10万）和水果湖街（486.02/10万）。与女性、年龄≤50岁及临床分类为轻症病例相比，男性（比值比=0.690，95%置信区间：0.322-1.478）、年龄>50岁（比值比=11.745，95%置信区间：6.878-20.058）、临床分类为重症病例（比值比=2.317，95%置信区间：1.789-3.000）及危重症病例（比值比=10.794，95%置信区间：7.997-14.569），以及性别时间依存协变量（比值比=1.392，95%置信区间：1.053-1.840）是COVID-19确诊病例预后的主要影响因素。武昌区COVID-19病例的性别、年龄及职业分布广泛。男性、年龄>50岁、临床分类为重症及危重症病例是COVID-19确诊病例预后的影响因素。对出院病例、无症状感染者及密切接触者进行规范管理是降低COVID-19病例发病率的主要措施。
