Department of Physical Education, Northwest University, Xi'an, 710127, China.
College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi'an, 710127, China.
Sci Rep. 2021 Apr 9;11(1):7811. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-86188-0.
The novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) outbreak that emerged in late 2019 has posed a severe threat to human health and social and economic development, and thus has become a major public health crisis affecting the world. The spread of COVID-19 in population and regions is a typical geographical process, which is worth discussing from the geographical perspective. This paper focuses on Shandong province, which has a high incidence, though the first Chinese confirmed case was reported from Hubei province. Based on the data of reported confirmed cases and the detailed information of cases collected manually, we used text analysis, mathematical statistics and spatial analysis to reveal the demographic characteristics of confirmed cases and the spatio-temporal evolution process of the epidemic, and to explore the comprehensive mechanism of epidemic evolution and prevention and control. The results show that: (1) the incidence rate of COVID-19 in Shandong is 0.76/100,000. The majority of confirmed cases are old and middle-aged people who are infected by the intra-province diffusion, followed by young and middle-aged people who are infected outside the province. (2) Up to February 5, the number of daily confirmed cases shows a trend of "rapid increase before slowing down", among which, the changes of age and gender are closely related to population migration, epidemic characteristics and intervention measures. (3) Affected by the regional economy and population, the spatial distribution of the confirmed cases is obviously unbalanced, with the cluster pattern of "high-low" and "low-high". (4) The evolution of the migration pattern, affected by the geographical location of Wuhan and Chinese traditional culture, is dominated by "cross-provincial" and "intra-provincial" direct flow, and generally shows the trend of "southwest → northeast". Finally, combined with the targeted countermeasures of "source-flow-sink", the comprehensive mechanism of COVID-19 epidemic evolution and prevention and control in Shandong is revealed. External and internal prevention and control measures are also figured out.
新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情于 2019 年末爆发，对人类健康和社会经济发展构成严重威胁，成为影响世界的重大公共卫生危机。COVID-19 在人群和地区中的传播是一个典型的地理过程，值得从地理角度进行探讨。本文以山东省为研究对象，该省疫情发病率较高，尽管首例中国确诊病例报告于湖北省。基于报告的确诊病例数据和手动收集的病例详细信息，我们使用文本分析、数理统计和空间分析来揭示确诊病例的人口统计学特征和疫情的时空演变过程，并探讨疫情演变和防控的综合机制。结果表明：（1）山东省 COVID-19 的发病率为 0.76/10 万，确诊病例以中老年人群为主，主要是省内扩散感染，其次是中青年人群，主要是省外感染。（2）截至 2 月 5 日，每日确诊病例数呈“快速增加后减缓”趋势，其中年龄和性别变化与人口迁移、疫情特征和干预措施密切相关。（3）受区域经济和人口影响，确诊病例的空间分布明显不平衡，呈现“高低”和“低高”的集聚模式。（4）迁移模式的演变受武汉地理位置和中国传统文化的影响，以“省际”和“省内”直接流为主，总体呈“西南→东北”的趋势。最后，结合“源-流-汇”的针对性措施，揭示了山东省 COVID-19 疫情演变和防控的综合机制，并提出了内外防控措施。
