School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima, Thailand.
Department of Civil Engineering, Construction and Building Materials Research Center, King Mongkut's University of Technology North Bangkok, Bangkok, Thailand.
Int J Inj Contr Saf Promot. 2021 Mar;28(1):113-126. doi: 10.1080/17457300.2020.1858113. Epub 2020 Dec 11.
Most of the previous single-vehicle crash analysis studies ignored the effect of road-segments level at higher plan that could probably be unobserved heterogeneity and vary among crash-level factor from one road-segment to next and possibly could lead to a potential biased estimated result. This study developed a hierarchical binary logit model which have the ability to account for both unobserved heterogeneity and correlation within road-segment, to investigate and compare the impact of significant factors influencing fatal single-vehicle crash between young, mid-age and old driver model. A seven-years from 2011 to 2017 crash data, Department of Highway (DOH), Thailand were used in this study. The Intra-Class-Correlation values indicate the importance of road-segment level that 10.1%, 12.2% and 12.8% of the total variation were accounted by random effect from road-segment heterogeneity for young, mid-age and old driver model, respectively. The estimated result of this study shows that influence of alcohol and fatigue increase risk of fatal crash among young and old driver, seatbelt-usage reduce risk of being fatal among mid-age and old driver, roadside safety feature (guardrail) significantly reduce fatality risk among young and mid-age driver, and night time driving without light increase probability of fatal crash for mid-age driver. This study recommends the need to enforce the law on driver under influence of alcohol and seatbelt usage, educational campaign on driving, and installation of guardrail on curve road.
大多数之前的单车事故分析研究忽略了道路路段水平的影响，而这种影响可能是未被观察到的异质性，并且在从一个路段到下一个路段的碰撞水平因素中可能会有所不同，并且可能会导致潜在的有偏差的估计结果。本研究开发了一个层次二元逻辑模型，该模型具有考虑未被观察到的异质性和路段内相关性的能力，以研究和比较影响年轻、中年和老年驾驶员模型中单车致命事故的显著因素的影响。本研究使用了 2011 年至 2017 年来自泰国公路局（DOH）的七年事故数据。类内相关值表明了道路路段水平的重要性，对于年轻、中年和老年驾驶员模型，分别有 10.1%、12.2%和 12.8%的总变异是由道路路段异质性的随机效应解释的。本研究的估计结果表明，酒精和疲劳对年轻和老年驾驶员的致命碰撞风险有影响，安全带的使用减少了中年和老年驾驶员的致命风险，路边安全设施（护栏）显著降低了年轻和中年驾驶员的死亡风险，夜间无灯驾驶增加了中年驾驶员发生致命碰撞的概率。本研究建议需要加强对酒后和不系安全带的驾驶员的执法力度，开展驾驶教育活动，并在弯道安装护栏。
