Department of Management, Faculty of Business Administration, Rajamangala University of Technology Isan, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand.
School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Feb 21;20(5):3845. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20053845.
Motorcycle accidents can impede sustainable development due to the high fatality rate associated with motorcycle riders, particularly in developing countries. Although there has been extensive research conducted on motorcycle accidents on highways, there is a limited understanding of the factors contributing to accidents involving the most commonly used motorcycles on local roads. This study aimed to identify the root causes of fatal motorcycle accidents on local roads. The contributing factors consist of four groups: rider characteristics, maneuvers prior to the crash, temporal and environmental characteristics, and road characteristics. The study employed random parameters logit models with unobserved heterogeneity in means and variances while also incorporating the temporal instability principle. The results revealed that the data related to motorcycle accidents on local roads between 2018 and 2020 exhibited temporal variation. Numerous variables were discovered to influence the means and variances of the unobserved factors that were identified as random parameters. Male riders, riders over 50 years old, foreign riders, and accidents that occurred at night with inadequate lighting were identified as the primary factors that increased the risk of fatalities. This paper presents a clear policy recommendation aimed at organizations and identifies the relevant stakeholders, including the Department of Land Transport, traffic police, local government organizations, and academic groups.
摩托车事故会阻碍可持续发展，因为与摩托车骑手相关的高死亡率，尤其是在发展中国家。尽管已经有大量关于高速公路上摩托车事故的研究，但对于导致当地道路上最常用的摩托车事故的因素的理解有限。本研究旨在确定当地道路上致命摩托车事故的根本原因。促成因素包括四个组：骑手特征、碰撞前的动作、时间和环境特征以及道路特征。该研究采用随机参数对数模型，在均值和方差中具有未观察到的异质性，同时还包含时间不稳定性原则。结果表明，2018 年至 2020 年期间当地道路摩托车事故的数据表现出时间变化。发现了许多变量会影响未观察到的因素的均值和方差，这些因素被确定为随机参数。男性骑手、50 岁以上的骑手、外国骑手以及夜间照明不足时发生的事故被确定为增加死亡率风险的主要因素。本文提出了一个明确的政策建议，旨在针对组织并确定相关利益相关者，包括土地运输部、交通警察、地方政府组织和学术团体。
