1990年至2021年中国胆囊及胆道疾病的负担和危险因素以及未来15年危险因素的负担预测。
Burden and risk factors for gallbladder and biliary tract diseases in China from 1990 to 2021 and burden predictions of risk factors for the next 15 years.
作者信息
Zhao Shijun, Zhou Yan, Tang Wangyou, Zhao Cheng, Wang Lang, Zhu Xianglin, Liang Hao, Zhang Jie, Gao Tian, Ding Yinlu
机构信息
Department of General Surgery, The Second Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China.
Anqiu Municipal Hospital, Weifang, Shandong, China.
出版信息
Front Med (Lausanne). 2025 Aug 15;12:1528608. doi: 10.3389/fmed.2025.1528608. eCollection 2025.
BACKGROUND
Gallbladder and biliary tract diseases (GBDT) is a common digestive disorder; however, comprehensive epidemiological data from China are still limited.
METHODS
This study utilized the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 database to examine the burden of GBDT from 1990 to 2021. The key metrics analyzed included age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence rate (ASPR), rate of mortality (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR). Furthermore, the study analyzed trends and future projections concerning GBDT linked to high body mass index (HBMI). Joinpoint regression analyses were performed to evaluate trends in disease burden from 1990 to 2021. Furthermore, the study analyzed trends in mortality and DALYs attributable to GBDT linked to high HBMI and made projections for HBMI-related GBDT mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over the next 15 years.
RESULTS
From 1990 to 2021, the ASPR and ASIR of GBDT in China showed fluctuating trends, and the ASPR and ASIR of GBDT in globally also fluctuated similarly, but with a smaller amplitude, and the overall trend showed a decreasing trend. The ASMR showed a lower level with a stable trend, and the ASDR also showed a lower level but slowly decreased annually. The incidence, prevalence, mortality and DALYs of GBDT were correlated with old age and female. The burden of disease attributable to GBDT due to HBMI was concentrated in the very old. The BAPC model predicts an increase in the DALYs and a decrease in mortality, deaths, and DALYs rate for GBDT attributable to HBMI over the next 15 years.
CONCLUSION
GBDT remains a major global public health problem, and the development trend of GBDT in China has far-reaching global implications. In China, the number of incident cases of GBDT and ASIR increased between 1990 and 2021, and GBDT, due to HBMI, poses a greater disease burden in China, both in the past and in the future.
背景
胆囊及胆道疾病（GBDT）是一种常见的消化系统疾病；然而，来自中国的全面流行病学数据仍然有限。
方法
本研究利用2021年全球疾病负担研究数据库，考察了1990年至2021年期间GBDT的疾病负担。分析的关键指标包括年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）、患病率（ASPR）、死亡率（ASMR）和年龄标准化残疾调整生命年率（ASDR）。此外，该研究分析了与高体重指数（HBMI）相关的GBDT的趋势和未来预测。进行了Joinpoint回归分析，以评估1990年至2021年期间疾病负担的趋势。此外，该研究分析了与高HBMI相关的GBDT导致的死亡率和伤残调整生命年的趋势，并对未来15年与HBMI相关的GBDT死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）进行了预测。
结果
1990年至2021年期间，中国GBDT的ASPR和ASIR呈波动趋势，全球GBDT的ASPR和ASIR也呈现类似的波动，但幅度较小，总体趋势呈下降趋势。ASMR处于较低水平且趋势稳定，ASDR也处于较低水平，但每年缓慢下降。GBDT的发病率、患病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年与老年和女性相关。由于HBMI导致的GBDT疾病负担集中在老年人中。BAPC模型预测，在未来15年中，与HBMI相关的GBDT的伤残调整生命年将增加，而死亡率、死亡数和伤残调整生命年率将下降。
结论
GBDT仍然是一个主要的全球公共卫生问题，中国GBDT的发展趋势具有深远的全球影响。在中国，1990年至2021年期间GBDT的发病例数和ASIR有所增加，并且由于HBMI导致的GBDT在过去和未来都给中国带来了更大的疾病负担。
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