Cedrez Camila Bonilla, Chamberlin Jordan, Hijmans Robert J
Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, USA.
International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Colombia.
Glob Food Sec. 2020 Sep;26:100438. doi: 10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100438.
Local food prices are key indicators of food security and market conditions. Yet price data are often not available, particularly for rural areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. We compiled data from 168 markets to study spatial and temporal price variation. We found that prices slightly increase when the preceding growing season was dry. Across the continent, there is pronounced seasonal variation, with lowest prices 2-3 months after harvest and highest prices just before harvest. A predictive model explained 42% of the spatial variation in prices. Our results show that spatial and temporal price variation can be generalized and that prices can be estimated for unsampled locations or months. Such estimates may be used to improve the targeting of food security interventions and strengthen empirical policy-oriented research.
当地食品价格是粮食安全和市场状况的关键指标。然而，价格数据往往难以获取，尤其是在撒哈拉以南非洲的农村地区。我们收集了168个市场的数据，以研究价格的空间和时间变化。我们发现，当前一个生长季节干旱时，价格会略有上涨。在整个非洲大陆，价格存在明显的季节性变化，收获后2至3个月价格最低，收获前价格最高。一个预测模型解释了价格空间变化的42%。我们的结果表明，价格的空间和时间变化具有普遍性，可以对未抽样地点或月份的价格进行估计。这些估计值可用于改进粮食安全干预措施的目标定位，并加强以政策为导向的实证研究。
