Alemu Ferede Mengistie
College of Business and Economics, Department of Economics, Debre Tabor, Ethiopia.
Heliyon. 2022 Sep 17;8(9):e10675. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e10675. eCollection 2022 Sep.
The issue of welfare is a widespread issue that any country in the world would love to achieve. However, in Ethiopia, many societies are living in poverty because of high food prices emanating from fragile agricultural productivity and exchange rate devaluation. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of agricultural factors productivity, food prices, and exchange rates on household welfare in Ethiopia. Based on the stochastic process of the variables, the autoregressive distributed lag model has been employed. The result of the model revealed that agricultural land productivity in the introduction episode depresses welfare and, latterly, it optimistically improves welfare. Nevertheless, labor productivity in agriculture has a negative impact on welfare. Furthermore, exchange rate depreciation and food price increases in Ethiopia endanger welfare by eroding purchasers' purchasing power and amplifying the divergence of demand and supply in the economy. To improve the welfare of society, the government and society should increase the productive capacity of domestic firms and the agriculture sector to the extent that offsets the exchange rate effects on welfare.
福利问题是一个世界上任何国家都希望实现的普遍问题。然而，在埃塞俄比亚，由于脆弱的农业生产力和汇率贬值导致食品价格居高不下，许多社会群体正生活在贫困之中。本研究的目的是调查农业要素生产力、食品价格和汇率对埃塞俄比亚家庭福利的影响。基于变量的随机过程，采用了自回归分布滞后模型。模型结果显示，引入阶段的农业土地生产力会降低福利，但随后会积极改善福利。尽管如此，农业劳动生产率对福利有负面影响。此外，埃塞俄比亚的汇率贬值和食品价格上涨通过侵蚀购买者的购买力以及加剧经济中供需差异而危及福利。为了提高社会福利，政府和社会应提高国内企业和农业部门的生产能力，以抵消汇率对福利的影响。
