National University of Singapore, Singapore 119245.
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
BMJ. 2020 Dec 16;371:m4465. doi: 10.1136/bmj.m4465.
To investigate the association between popular football games played in Europe and the incidence of traffic accidents in Asia.
Study based on 41 538 traffic accidents involving taxis in Singapore and 1 814 320 traffic accidents in Taiwan, combined with 12 788 European club football games over a seven year period.
Singapore and Taiwan.
The largest taxi company in Singapore, with fine grained traffic accident records in a three year span; all traffic accident records in Taiwan in a six year span.
Days when high profile football games were played or not played.
Number of traffic accidents.
Regression based and time series models suggest that days with high profile European football matches were more positively associated with traffic accidents than days with less popular European football matches. For an approximate €134.74m (£120.25m; $159.76m) increase in average market value for matches played on a given day, approximately one extra accident would occur among Singapore taxi drivers, and for an approximate €7.99m increase in average market value of matches, approximately one extra accident would occur among all drivers in Taiwan. This association remained after control for weather conditions, time of the year, weekend versus weekday effects, driver demographics, and underlying temporal trends. It was also stronger for daytime traffic accidents than for night time traffic accidents, suggesting that the association between high profile football matches and traffic accidents cannot be attributed to night time celebration or attention deficits while watching and driving. Annually, this increased rate of traffic accidents may translate to approximately 371 accidents among taxi drivers in Singapore and approximately 41 079 accidents among the Taiwanese public, as well as economic losses of approximately €821 448 among Singapore taxi drivers and approximately €13 994 409 among Taiwanese drivers and insurers. The total health and economic impact of this finding is likely to be much higher because GMT+8 is the most populous time zone, encompassing 24% of the world's population.
Days featuring high profile football matches in Europe were associated with more traffic accidents in Taiwan and Singapore than were days with lower profile football matches. A potential causal mechanism may be Asian drivers losing sleep by watching high profile European matches, which are often played in the middle of the night in Asia.
探讨在亚洲举行的热门欧洲足球比赛与交通事故发生率之间的关系。
该研究基于新加坡的 41538 起涉及出租车的交通事故和台湾的 1814320 起交通事故，结合了 7 年期间的 12788 场欧洲俱乐部足球比赛。
新加坡和台湾。
新加坡最大的出租车公司，拥有三年的精细交通事故记录；台湾六年跨度内的所有交通事故记录。
高知名度足球比赛进行或不进行的日子。
交通事故数量。
基于回归和时间序列模型的结果表明，有高知名度欧洲足球比赛的日子与交通事故的正相关性高于知名度较低的欧洲足球比赛的日子。在给定的一天中，比赛的平均市场价值增加约 1.3474 亿欧元（1.2025 亿英镑；1.5976 亿美元），新加坡出租车司机中大约会增加一起事故，而在比赛的平均市场价值增加约 7990 万欧元时，台湾所有司机中大约会增加一起事故。在控制天气条件、一年中的时间、周末与工作日效应、驾驶员人口统计学和潜在的时间趋势后，这种关联仍然存在。对于白天的交通事故，这种关联比夜间交通事故更强，这表明高知名度足球比赛与交通事故之间的关联不能归因于夜间的庆祝活动或观看和驾驶时的注意力缺陷。按年计算，新加坡出租车司机中这种交通事故发生率的增加可能会导致大约 371 起事故，而在台湾公众中可能会导致大约 41079 起事故，新加坡出租车司机的经济损失约为 821448 欧元，而台湾司机和保险公司的经济损失约为 13994409 欧元。由于 GMT+8 是人口最多的时区，占世界人口的 24%，因此这一发现的总体健康和经济影响可能要高得多。
在欧洲举行的高知名度足球比赛日与台湾和新加坡的交通事故发生率高于低知名度足球比赛日相关。一个潜在的因果机制可能是亚洲司机因观看经常在亚洲午夜进行的高知名度欧洲比赛而失眠。
