Zimmermann Ivan, Sanchez Mauro, Brant Jonas, Alves Domingos
Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Ciências da Saúde, Brasília, DF, Brasil.
Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brasil.
Epidemiol Serv Saude. 2020 Dec 14;29(5):e2020361. doi: 10.1590/S1679-49742020000500022. eCollection 2020.
To build scenarios and analyze the impact of social distancing policies on the spread of COVID-19 and the need for intensive care unit beds.
Three dissemination scenarios were built according to level of adherence to social distancing measures in the context of Brazil's Federal District, based on a dynamic transition compartmental model and Monte Carlo simulations. The model's parameter values were based on official sources, indexed bibliographic databases and public data repositories.
The favorable scenario, with constant 58% adherence to social distancing, estimated a peak of 189 (interquartile range [IQR]: 57 - 394) ICU hospitalizations on March 3rd2021. Absence of social distancing would result in an unfavorable scenario with a peak of 6,214 (IQR: 4,618 - 8,415) ICU hospitalizations probably as soon as July 14th2020.
The projections indicate the high impact of social distancing measures and emphasize the applicability of public indicators for COVID-19 monitoring.
构建情景并分析社交距离政策对新冠病毒传播以及重症监护病房床位需求的影响。
基于动态过渡 compartmental 模型和蒙特卡洛模拟，根据巴西联邦区对社交距离措施的遵守程度构建了三种传播情景。模型的参数值基于官方来源、索引书目数据库和公共数据存储库。
在有利情景下，社交距离遵守率持续保持在58%，预计2021年3月3日重症监护病房住院人数峰值为189人（四分位距[IQR]：57 - 394）。若不采取社交距离措施，将导致不利情景，可能最早在2020年7月14日出现重症监护病房住院人数峰值6214人（IQR：4618 - 8415）。
这些预测表明社交距离措施具有重大影响，并强调了公共指标在新冠病毒监测中的适用性。
