Health Geography and Policy Group, ETH Zürich, Switzerland.
University Hospital Zurich, Switzerland.
Swiss Med Wkly. 2020 May 4;150:w20277. doi: 10.4414/smw.2020.20277.
In Switzerland, the COVID-19 epidemic is progressively slowing down owing to “social distancing” measures introduced by the Federal Council on 16 March 2020. However, the gradual ease of these measures may initiate a second epidemic wave, the length and intensity of which are difficult to anticipate. In this context, hospitals must prepare for a potential increase in intensive care unit (ICU) admissions of patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome. Here, we introduce icumonitoring.ch, a platform providing hospital-level projections for ICU occupancy. We combined current data on the number of beds and ventilators with canton-level projections of COVID-19 cases from two S-E-I-R models. We disaggregated epidemic projection in each hospital in Switzerland for the number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, hospitalisations in ICU, and ventilators in use. The platform is updated every 3-4 days and can incorporate projections from other modelling teams to inform decision makers with a range of epidemic scenarios for future hospital occupancy.
在瑞士，由于联邦委员会于 2020 年 3 月 16 日推出的“社交距离”措施，COVID-19 疫情正在逐步放缓。然而，这些措施的逐步放宽可能会引发第二波疫情，其长度和强度难以预测。在这种情况下，医院必须为急性呼吸窘迫综合征患者可能增加的重症监护病房（ICU）入院做好准备。在这里，我们介绍 icumonitoring.ch，这是一个提供 ICU 入住率的医院级预测的平台。我们将当前的床位和呼吸机数量与来自两个 S-E-I-R 模型的 COVID-19 病例的州级预测结合起来。我们对瑞士每家医院的疫情预测进行了细分，包括 COVID-19 病例、住院、ICU 住院和使用中的呼吸机数量。该平台每 3-4 天更新一次，并可以纳入其他建模团队的预测，为决策者提供一系列未来医院入住率的疫情情景。
