HIV/STI Surveillance Research Center, and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV Surveillance, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
Int J Health Policy Manag. 2022 Mar 1;11(3):334-343. doi: 10.34172/ijhpm.2020.134.
Iran is one of the first few countries that was hit hard with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We aimed to estimate the total number of COVID-19 related infections, deaths, and hospitalizations in Iran under different physical distancing and isolation scenarios.
We developed a susceptible-exposed-infected/infectious-recovered/removed (SEIR) model, parameterized to the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran. We used the model to quantify the magnitude of the outbreak in Iran and assess the effectiveness of isolation and physical distancing under five different scenarios (A: 0% isolation, through E: 40% isolation of all infected cases). We used Monte-Carlo simulation to calculate the 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).
Under scenario A, we estimated 5 196 000 (UI 1 753 000-10 220 000) infections to happen till mid-June with 966 000 (UI 467 800-1 702 000) hospitalizations and 111 000 (UI 53 400-200 000) deaths. Successful implantation of scenario E would reduce the number of infections by 90% (ie, 550 000) and change the epidemic peak from 66 000 on June 9, to 9400 on March 1, 2020. Scenario E also reduces the hospitalizations by 92% (ie, 74 500), and deaths by 93% (ie, 7800).
With no approved vaccination or therapy available, we found physical distancing and isolation that include public awareness and case-finding and isolation of 40% of infected people could reduce the burden of COVID-19 in Iran by 90% by mid-June.
伊朗是首批受到 2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行严重打击的国家之一。我们旨在根据不同的物理隔离和隔离场景估计伊朗与 COVID-19 相关的感染、死亡和住院人数。
我们开发了一个易感-暴露-感染/传染性恢复/清除（SEIR）模型，该模型针对伊朗的 COVID-19 大流行进行了参数化。我们使用该模型量化了伊朗疫情的严重程度，并评估了在以下五种不同场景下隔离和物理隔离的效果（A：0%隔离，E：40%隔离所有感染病例）。我们使用蒙特卡罗模拟计算了 95%置信区间（UI）。
在场景 A 下，我们估计截至 6 月中旬将发生 519.6 万例感染（UI 175.3 万-1022 万），住院人数为 96.6 万（UI 46.78 万-170.2 万），死亡人数为 11.1 万（UI 5.34 万-20 万）。成功实施场景 E 将使感染人数减少 90%（即 55 万），并将疫情高峰从 6 月 9 日的 6.6 万例推迟到 2020 年 3 月 1 日的 9400 例。场景 E 还将住院人数减少 92%（即 7.45 万），死亡人数减少 93%（即 7800 人）。
在没有批准的疫苗或治疗方法的情况下，我们发现包括公众意识、发现病例和隔离 40%感染人群在内的物理隔离和隔离措施可以将伊朗 COVID-19 的负担在 6 月中旬减少 90%。
