School of Transportation Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing, China.
College of Transportation Engineering, Chang'an University, Xi'an, China.
Traffic Inj Prev. 2021;22(2):153-157. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2020.1853711. Epub 2020 Dec 18.
Due to limited road space, e-bike riders are likely to cross the division mark on a road section and ride on the motor lane, which becomes a major cause of traffic accidents involving e-bikes. The objective of this study is to qualitatively and quantitatively investigate the relationship between lane-transgressing behavior and factors including traffic condition and road geometric design. : A survival analysis approach is proposed to model e-bikers' lane-transgressing behavior, including the Kaplan-Meier curve and the Cox proportional hazards model. The Kaplan-Meyer non-parametric regression is utilized to analyze the influence of each factor on the lane-transgressing probability. The Cox proportional hazards model is applied to thoroughly evaluate multidimensional influencing factors effects. : The speed of e-bikes, the width of the non-motorized lane, the density of non-motorized vehicles, and the traffic condition of the adjacent motorized lane have significant influences on the lane-transgressing behavior. The lane-transgressing risk drops from 83.6% to 28.8% when the speed decreases from 35 km/h to 20 km/h. With wider non-motorized lanes or lower non-motorized vehicle density, the risk can be reduced by over 60%. Besides, when traffic condition of motorized vehicles changes from high turbulence condition to low turbulence condition, the lane-transgressing risk can be increased by 144.5%. : E-bikers behave differently under the effects of various factors. In the perspective of the safety and the design, these effects need to be considered. The width of the non-motorized lane is recommended to be no less than 260 cm. The physically separated facilities, such as guardrail, are highly recommended to avoid the interference between the motorized vehicles and bicycles. This study provides a reference for a guidance for the management of the mixed traffic flow with e-bikes.
由于道路空间有限，电动自行车骑手很可能会越过路段的分界线并在机动车道上行驶，这成为涉及电动自行车的交通事故的主要原因。本研究的目的是定性和定量研究车道越界行为与交通条件和道路几何设计等因素之间的关系。：提出了一种生存分析方法来对电动自行车手的车道越界行为进行建模，包括 Kaplan-Meier 曲线和 Cox 比例风险模型。利用 Kaplan-Meier 非参数回归分析每个因素对车道越界概率的影响。应用 Cox 比例风险模型全面评估多维影响因素的影响。：电动自行车的速度、非机动车道的宽度、非机动车辆的密度以及相邻机动车道的交通状况对车道越界行为有显著影响。当速度从 35km/h 降低到 20km/h 时，车道越界的风险从 83.6%降低到 28.8%。非机动车道越宽或非机动车辆密度越低，风险可降低 60%以上。此外，当机动车的交通状况从高紊流条件变为低紊流条件时，车道越界的风险可增加 144.5%。：电动自行车在各种因素的影响下表现出不同的行为。从安全和设计的角度来看，这些影响需要加以考虑。非机动车道的宽度建议不小于 260cm。建议使用物理隔离设施，如护栏，以避免机动车和自行车之间的干扰。本研究为管理混合交通流中的电动自行车提供了参考。
