Zhou Nian, Zeng Haotian, Xie Runhong, Yang Tengfei, Kong Jiangwei, Song Zhenzhu, Zhang Fu, Liao Xinbiao, Chen Xinzhe, Miao Qifeng, Lan Fengchong, Zhao Weidong, Han Rong, Li Dongri
Department of Forensic Evidence Science, School of Forensic Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
Guangzhou Public Security Bureau, Guangzhou, China.
Heliyon. 2024 Apr 19;10(9):e29961. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e29961. eCollection 2024 May 15.
Electric bicycles (e-bikes) and bicycles in large Chinese cities have recently witnessed substantial growth in ridership. According to related accident trends, this study analyzed characteristics and spatial distribution in the period when e-bike-related accidents rapidly increased to propose priority measures to reduce accident casualties.
For e-bike- and bicycle-related accident data from the Guangzhou Public Security Traffic Management Integrated System, linear regression was used to examine the trends in the number of accidents and age-adjusted road traffic casualties from 2011 to 2021. Then, for the period when e-bike-related accidents rapidly increased, descriptive statistics were computed regarding rider characteristics, illegal behaviors, road types, collision objects and their accident liability. One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) followed by Bonferroni's multiple comparison test. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Finally, the density distribution of accidents was presented, and Moran's I (MI) was used for assessing spatial autocorrelation. Hotspots were identified based on an optimized hotspot analysis tool.
Between 2011 and 2021, the number of accidents and casualty rate (per 100,000 population) increased for e-bikes but decreased for bicycles. After 2018, e-bike-related accidents increased rapidly, and bicycle-related accidents plateaued. Accident hotspots were concentrated in central city areas and suburban areas close to the former. Three-quarters of accidents occurred in motorized vehicle lanes. Most occurred on roads without physically segregated nonmotorized vehicle lanes. More than three-fifths of the accidents involved motor vehicles with at least four wheels. The prevalence (per 100 people) of casualties among e-bike rider victims and cyclist victims accounted for 92.0 % and 96.5 %, respectively. A total of 71.6 % of e-bike-related accidents involved migrant workers. Riding in motorized vehicle lanes was the most common illegal behavior.
Although e-bike-related and bicycle-related accidents presented similar characteristics, the sharp increase in e-bike-related accidents requires attention. To improve e-bike safety, governments should develop appropriate countermeasures to prevent riders from riding on motorways, such as improving road infrastructure, adjusting the driver's license system and addressing priority control areas.
中国大城市的电动自行车和自行车的骑行人数最近大幅增长。根据相关事故趋势，本研究分析了电动自行车相关事故迅速增加期间的特征和空间分布，以提出减少事故伤亡的优先措施。
对于广州公安交通管理综合系统中的电动自行车和自行车相关事故数据，采用线性回归分析2011年至2021年事故数量和年龄调整后的道路交通伤亡趋势。然后，针对电动自行车相关事故迅速增加的时期，计算了骑手特征、违法行为、道路类型、碰撞对象及其事故责任的描述性统计数据。采用单因素方差分析（ANOVA），随后进行Bonferroni多重比较检验。P < 0.05被认为具有统计学意义。最后，呈现事故的密度分布，并使用Moran's I（MI）评估空间自相关性。基于优化的热点分析工具识别热点。
2011年至2021年期间，电动自行车事故数量和伤亡率（每10万人）上升，而自行车事故数量和伤亡率下降。2018年后，电动自行车相关事故迅速增加，而自行车相关事故趋于平稳。事故热点集中在市中心区域和靠近市中心的郊区。四分之三的事故发生在机动车道。大多数事故发生在没有物理隔离非机动车道的道路上。超过五分之三的事故涉及至少四个轮子的机动车。电动自行车骑手受害者和自行车骑手受害者的伤亡发生率（每100人）分别占92.0%和96.5%。电动自行车相关事故中共有71.6%涉及农民工。在机动车道骑行是最常见的违法行为。
虽然电动自行车相关事故和自行车相关事故呈现出相似的特征，但电动自行车相关事故的急剧增加需要引起关注。为提高电动自行车安全性，政府应制定适当对策，防止骑手在机动车道骑行，如改善道路基础设施、调整驾照制度和确定优先控制区域。
