School of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, 50 UNIST-gil, Ulju-gun, Ulsan 44919, Korea.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Dec 16;17(24):9442. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17249442.
Large-scale chemical accidents that occur near areas with large populations can cause significant damage not only to employees in a workplace but also to residents near the accident site. Despite the increasing frequency and severity of chemical accidents, few researchers have argued for the necessity of developing scenarios and simulation models for these accidents. Combining the TRANSIMS (Transportation Analysis and Simulation System) agent-based model with the ALOHA (Areal Location of Hazardous Atmospheres) dispersion model, this study aims to develop a modeling framework for simulating emergency evacuations in response to large-scale chemical accidents. The baseline accident scenario assumed the simultaneous leakage of toxic chemicals from industrial complexes near residential areas. The ALOHA model results showed that approximately 60% of residents in the scenario's city were required to evacuate their homes. The majority of evacuees completed their evacuations within 5 h in the baseline scenario (evacuating maximum number of private vehicles without any intervention), while the distribution of the population and street network density caused geographical variability in clearance time. Clearance time can be significantly reduced by changing both the evacuees' behaviors and the evacuation policy, which suggests the necessity for proper public intervention when the mass evacuation of residents is required due to chemical accidents.
大规模化学事故发生在人口密集地区附近，不仅会对工作场所的员工造成重大损害，还会对事故现场附近的居民造成损害。尽管化学事故的频率和严重程度不断增加，但很少有研究人员认为有必要为这些事故开发情景和模拟模型。本研究将基于主体的 TRANSIMS（交通分析和模拟系统）模型与 ALOHA（危险大气区域定位）扩散模型相结合，旨在开发一个用于模拟大规模化学事故应急疏散的建模框架。基本事故情景假设有毒化学品同时从居民区附近的工业综合体泄漏。ALOHA 模型的结果表明，情景中城市约有 60%的居民需要撤离家园。在基本情景中（在没有任何干预的情况下，尽可能多地使用私家车进行疏散），大多数疏散者在 5 小时内完成了疏散，而人口分布和街道网络密度导致了疏散时间的地理差异。通过改变疏散者的行为和疏散政策，可以显著减少疏散时间，这表明在需要对居民进行大规模疏散时，必须进行适当的公共干预。
