Center for Urban Public Safety Research, Nankai University, Tianjin, China.
Risk Anal. 2012 Mar;32(3):566-77. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01670.x. Epub 2011 Aug 29.
With the rapid development of industry in China, the number of establishments that are proposed or under construction is increasing year by year, and many are industries that handle flammable, explosive, toxic, harmful, and dangerous substances. Accidents such as fire, explosion, and toxic diffusion inevitably happen. Accidents resulting from these major hazards in cities cause a large number of casualties and property losses. It is increasingly important to analyze the risk of major hazards in cities realistically and to suitably plan and utilize the surrounding land based on the risk analysis results, thereby reducing the hazards. A theoretical system for risk assessment of major hazards in cities is proposed in this article, and the major hazard risk for the entire city is analyzed quantitatively. Risks of various major accidents are considered together, superposition effect is analyzed, individual risk contours of the entire city are drawn out, and the level of risk in the city is assessed using "as low as reasonably practicable" guidelines. After the entire city's individual risk distribution is obtained, risk zones are divided according to corresponding individual risk value of HSE, and land-use planning suggestions are proposed. Finally, a city in China is used as an example to illustrate the risk assessment process of the city's major hazard and its application in urban land-use planning. The proposed method has a certain theoretical and practical significance in establishing and improving risk analysis of major hazard and urban land-use planning. On the one hand, major urban public risk is avoided; further, the land is utilized in the best possible way in order to obtain the maximum benefit from its use.
随着中国工业的飞速发展，拟建或在建的企业数量逐年增加，其中不乏涉及易燃、易爆、有毒、有害、危险源的工业企业。火灾、爆炸、毒物扩散等事故不可避免。城市重大危险源事故造成的人员伤亡和财产损失越来越大。根据风险分析结果，实事求是地分析城市重大危险源的风险，并对周边土地进行合理规划和利用，降低风险，显得尤为重要。本文提出了城市重大危险源风险评估的理论体系，对整个城市的重大危险源风险进行了定量分析。综合考虑了各种重大事故的风险，分析了叠加效应，绘制出整个城市的个体风险等值线，采用“尽可能低”原则对城市风险水平进行了评估。获得整个城市的个体风险分布后，根据 HSE 的相应个体风险值划分风险区域，并提出土地利用规划建议。最后，以中国的一个城市为例，说明了城市重大危险源风险评估过程及其在城市土地利用规划中的应用。该方法在建立和完善重大危险源风险分析和城市土地利用规划方面具有一定的理论和实践意义。一方面，可以避免重大城市公共风险；另一方面，还可以在最佳利用土地的同时，从土地利用中获得最大的效益。
