Alshdokhi Khaled, Petersen Carl, Clarke Jenny
School of Health Sciences, College of Education, Health and Human Development, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand.
Front Sports Act Living. 2020 Apr 23;2:46. doi: 10.3389/fspor.2020.00046. eCollection 2020.
To predict future performance, coaches rely on their previous experiences with a relatively small number of adolescent competitive swimmers to estimate the rate of improvement. The purpose of this study is to quantify the annual change in competition performance as backstroke swimmers mature. Data from 2006 to 2017 provided 9,956 swimming years of accumulated data which was used to estimate the rate of improvement of male and female backstroke swimmers as they aged from 8 to 18 years. Swimming performance improved rapidly between 8 and 13 years, and improvements diminished as swimmers approached their performance potential around 18 years old. These results provide accurate age-based progression data for adolescent backstroke swimmers, providing baseline performance prediction for coaches to predict future performance as swimmers mature, and providing a measure against which potential improvements from novel coaching and training methods can be objectively evaluated.
为了预测未来表现，教练们依靠他们以往与相对少数青少年竞技游泳运动员的经历来估计进步速度。本研究的目的是量化仰泳运动员成熟过程中比赛成绩的年度变化。2006年至2017年的数据提供了9956个游泳年的累积数据，用于估计男女仰泳运动员从8岁到18岁年龄增长过程中的进步速度。游泳成绩在8岁至13岁之间迅速提高，随着运动员接近18岁左右的成绩潜力，提高幅度逐渐减小。这些结果为青少年仰泳运动员提供了基于年龄的准确进步数据，为教练预测运动员成熟后的未来表现提供了基线表现预测，并提供了一种衡量标准，据此可以客观评估新的教练和训练方法带来的潜在进步。
