Swiss Swimming Federation, Section for High-Performance Sports, Bern, Switzerland.
Department for Elite Sport, Swiss Federal Institute of Sport Magglingen, Hauptstrasse 247, 2532, Magglingen, Switzerland.
Sci Rep. 2022 Jun 18;12(1):10292. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-13837-3.
To provide percentile curves for short-course swimming events, including 5 swimming strokes, 6 race distances, and both sexes, as well as to compare differences in race times between cross-sectional analysis and longitudinal tracking, a total of 31,645,621 race times of male and female swimmers were analyzed. Two percentile datasets were established from individual swimmers' annual best times and a two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to determine differences between cross-sectional analysis and longitudinal tracking. A software-based percentile calculator was provided to extract the exact percentile for a given race time. Longitudinal tracking reduced the number of annual best times that were included in the percentiles by 98.35% to 262,071 and showed faster mean race times (P < 0.05) compared to the cross-sectional analysis. This difference was found in the lower percentiles (1st to 20th) across all age categories (P < 0.05); however, in the upper percentiles (80th to 99th), longitudinal tracking showed faster race times during early and late junior age only (P < 0.05), after which race times approximated cross-sectional tracking. The percentile calculator provides quick and easy data access to facilitate practical application of percentiles in training or competition. Longitudinal tracking that accounts for drop-out may predict performance progression towards elite age, particularly for high-performance swimmers.
为了提供短程游泳项目的百分位曲线，包括 5 种泳姿、6 种比赛距离和男女组别，同时比较横断分析和纵向跟踪之间的比赛时间差异，我们分析了总计 31645621 名男女游泳运动员的比赛时间。从单个游泳运动员的年度最佳成绩中建立了两个百分位数据集，并使用双向方差分析（ANOVA）来确定横断分析和纵向跟踪之间的差异。提供了一个基于软件的百分位计算器，用于提取给定比赛时间的精确百分位。与横断分析相比，纵向跟踪将百分位中包含的年度最佳成绩数量减少了 98.35%，至 262071 个，并且显示出更快的平均比赛时间（P<0.05）。在所有年龄组中，都可以在较低的百分位（第 1 到 20 位）中发现这种差异（P<0.05）；然而，在较高的百分位（第 80 到 99 位）中，只有在早期和晚期青少年时期，纵向跟踪才显示出更快的比赛时间（P<0.05），之后比赛时间接近横断跟踪。百分位计算器提供了快速便捷的数据访问，便于在训练或比赛中实际应用百分位。考虑到淘汰因素的纵向跟踪可能会预测到精英年龄的表现进展，特别是对于高性能游泳运动员。
