Emerg Infect Dis. 2021 Jan;27(1):170-181. doi: 10.3201/eid2701.191787.
Centre Department, Haiti, was the origin of a major cholera epidemic during 2010-2019. Although no fine-scale spatial delineation is officially available, we aimed to analyze determinants of cholera at the local level and identify priority localities in need of interventions. After estimating the likely boundaries of 1,730 localities by using Voronoi polygons, we mapped 5,322 suspected cholera cases reported during January 2015-September 2016 by locality alongside environmental and socioeconomic variables. A hierarchical clustering on principal components highlighted 2 classes with high cholera risk: localities close to rivers and unimproved water sources (standardized incidence ratio 1.71, 95% CI 1.02-2.87; p = 0.04) and urban localities with markets (standardized incidence ratio 1.69, 95% CI 1.25-2.29; p = 0.0006). Our analyses helped identify and characterize areas where efforts should be focused to reduce vulnerability to cholera and other waterborne diseases; these methods could be used in other contexts.
海地的 Centre 部门是 2010 年至 2019 年期间一场大规模霍乱疫情的源头。尽管没有官方提供的精细空间划分,但我们旨在分析当地一级霍乱的决定因素,并确定需要干预的优先地区。在使用 Voronoi 多边形估计 1730 个地方的可能边界后,我们按地方绘制了 2015 年 1 月至 2016 年 9 月期间报告的 5322 例疑似霍乱病例,以及环境和社会经济变量。主成分的层次聚类突出了具有高霍乱风险的 2 类地方:靠近河流和未改善水源的地方(标准化发病比 1.71,95%CI 1.02-2.87;p = 0.04)和有市场的城市地方(标准化发病比 1.69,95%CI 1.25-2.29;p = 0.0006)。我们的分析有助于确定和描述应重点努力减少霍乱和其他水传播疾病脆弱性的地区;这些方法可用于其他情况。