Indonesia One Health University Network, Depok, West Java, Indonesia.
Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
PLoS One. 2020 Dec 22;15(12):e0243703. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0243703. eCollection 2020.
Since the first cases reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread worldwide. In Indonesia, the first case was reported in early March 2020, and the numbers of confirmed infections have been increasing until now. Efforts to contain the virus globally and in Indonesia are ongoing. This is the very first manuscript using a spatial-temporal model to describe the SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Indonesia, as well as providing a patient profile for all confirmed COVID-19 cases.
Data was collected from the official website of the Indonesia National Task Force for the Acceleration of COVID-19, from the period of 02 March 2020-02 August 2020. The data from RT-PCR confirmed, SARS-CoV-2 positive patients was categorized according to demographics, symptoms and comorbidities based on case categorization (confirmed, recovered, dead). The data collected provides granular and thorough information on time and geographical location for all 34 Provinces across Indonesia.
A cumulative total of 111,450 confirmed cases of were reported in Indonesia during the study period. Of those confirmed cases 67.79% (75,551/111,450) were shown as recovered and 4.83% (5,382/111,450) of them as died. Patients were mostly male (50.52%; 56,300/111,450) and adults aged 31 to 45 years old (29.73%; 33,132/111,450). Overall patient presentation symptoms of cough and fever, as well as chronic disease comorbidities were in line with previously published data from elsewhere in South-East Asia. The data reported here, shows that from the detection of the first confirmed case and within a short time period of 40 days, all the provinces of Indonesia were affected by COVID-19.
This study is the first to provide detailed characteristics of the confirmed SARS-CoV-2 patients in Indonesia, including their demographic profile and COVID-19 presentation history. It used a spatial-temporal analysis to present the epidemic spread from the very beginning of the outbreak throughout all provinces in the country. The increase of new confirmed cases has been consistent during this time period for all provinces, with some demonstrating a sharp increase, in part due to the surge in national diagnostic capacity. This information delivers a ready resource that can be used for prediction modelling, and is utilized continuously by the current Indonesian Task Force in order to advise on potential implementation or removal of public distancing measures, and on potential availability of healthcare capacity in their efforts to ultimately manage the outbreak.
自 2019 年 12 月中国武汉首次报告病例以来，严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒 2（SARS-CoV-2）已在全球范围内传播。在印度尼西亚，首例病例于 2020 年 3 月初报告，确诊感染人数一直在增加。目前，全球和印度尼西亚都在努力控制病毒。这是第一篇使用时空模型描述印度尼西亚 SARS-CoV-2 传播的论文，同时也为所有确诊的 COVID-19 病例提供了患者特征。
数据来自印度尼西亚国家加速 COVID-19 工作队的官方网站，时间范围为 2020 年 3 月 2 日至 2020 年 8 月 2 日。根据病例分类（确诊、康复、死亡），将 RT-PCR 确诊的 SARS-CoV-2 阳性患者数据按人口统计学、症状和合并症进行分类。收集的数据为印度尼西亚 34 个省的所有时间和地理位置提供了详细和全面的信息。
在研究期间，印度尼西亚共报告了 111450 例确诊病例。在这些确诊病例中，67.79%（75551/111450）为康复，4.83%（5382/111450）为死亡。患者主要为男性（50.52%；56300/111450）和 31 至 45 岁的成年人（29.73%；33132/111450）。总体而言，咳嗽和发烧以及慢性疾病合并症等患者症状与东南亚其他地区先前发表的数据一致。这里报告的数据表明，从首例确诊病例的检测到 40 天内，印度尼西亚的所有省份都受到了 COVID-19 的影响。
本研究首次提供了印度尼西亚确诊 SARS-CoV-2 患者的详细特征，包括其人口统计学特征和 COVID-19 发病史。它使用时空分析展示了疫情从爆发开始在全国所有省份的传播情况。在此期间，所有省份的新增确诊病例持续增加，其中一些省份的新增病例急剧增加，部分原因是国家诊断能力的提高。这些信息提供了一个现成的资源，可以用于预测模型，并被当前印度尼西亚工作队持续利用，以便就可能实施或取消社会疏远措施以及医疗能力的潜在可用性提出建议，最终努力管理疫情。
