Rheumatology Unit, Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, University of Naples Federico II, Via Sergio, Pansini 5, 80131, Naples, Italy.
Department of Melanoma, Cancer Immunotherapy and Development Therapeutics, Istituto Nazionale Tumori IRCCS Fondazione Pascale, Naples, Italy.
J Transl Med. 2020 Dec 22;18(1):489. doi: 10.1186/s12967-020-02673-6.
In 1918 an unknown infectious agent spread around the world infecting over one-third of the general population and killing almost 50 million people. Many countries were at war, the First World War. Since Spain was a neutral country and Spanish press could report about the infection without censorship, this condition is commonly remembered as "Spanish influenza". This review examines several aspects during the 1918 influenza pandemic to bring out evidences which might be useful to imagine the possible magnitude of the present coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
In the first part of this review we will examine the origin of the SARS-Coronavirus-2 and 1918 Spanish Influenza Virus and the role played by host and environment in its diffusion. We will also include in our analysis an evaluation of different approaches utilized to restrain the spread of pandemic and to treat infected patients. In the second part, we will try to imagine the magnitude of the present COVID-19 pandemic and the possible measures able to restrain in the present environment its spread.
Several factors characterize the outcome in a viral pandemic infection. They include the complete knowledge of the virus, the complete knowledge of the host and of the environment where the host lives and the pandemic develops.
By comparing the situation seen in 1918 with the current one, we are now in a more favourable position. The experience of the past teaches us that their success is linked to a rapid, constant and lasting application. Then, rather than coercion, awareness of the need to observe such prevention measures works better.
1918 年，一种未知的传染病原体在全球范围内传播，感染了超过三分之一的人口，导致近 5000 万人死亡。当时许多国家都卷入了第一次世界大战。由于西班牙是中立国，西班牙媒体可以不受审查地报道疫情，因此这种情况通常被称为“西班牙流感”。本综述探讨了 1918 年流感大流行期间的几个方面，以揭示可能有助于想象当前 2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行规模的证据。
在本综述的第一部分，我们将检查 SARS-CoVoronavirus-2 和 1918 年西班牙流感病毒的起源，以及宿主和环境在其传播中的作用。我们还将在分析中包括对用于抑制大流行传播和治疗感染患者的不同方法的评估。在第二部分，我们将尝试想象当前 COVID-19 大流行的规模以及在当前环境下可能采取的措施来限制其传播。
几个因素决定了病毒性大流行感染的结果。其中包括对病毒的完全了解、对宿主的完全了解以及宿主生活和大流行发展的环境的了解。
通过将 1918 年的情况与当前情况进行比较，我们现在处于更有利的地位。过去的经验告诉我们，成功取决于快速、持续和持久的应用。那么，与其强制要求，不如让人们意识到需要遵守这些预防措施，这样效果会更好。
