School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Sask. S4S 7H9, Canada.
Environ Res. 2021 Mar;194:110634. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.110634. Epub 2020 Dec 23.
Water scarcity causes a series of eco-environmental problems, such as land salinization, biodiversity reduction and food crisis, which seriously restricts the sustainable development of the Aral Sea basin. In this study, a stepwise-cluster factorial analysis (SCFA) approach is proposed for assessing the effects of natural condition and human activity on the outflow of Syr Darya River (abbreviated as OSR) that has significant effects on the eco-environmental restoration of the Aral Sea. SCFA coupled stepwise cluster analysis and factorial analysis cannot only reflect the variability of outflow, but also identify the driving factors quantitatively. The results disclose that, in 1960-1991, the dominant factors (affecting the OSR) are upstream inflow (25.77%) > agricultural water use of Uzbekistan (7.21%) > industrial water use of Uzbekistan (4.53%) > agricultural water use of Kazakhstan (3.81%) > Precipitation (3.66%); interactions between upstream inflow and agricultural water use of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan and interactions between reservoir and evapotranspiration have the significant effects on the OSR. Results also indicate that, in 1992-2015, the dominant factors that affect the OSR are agricultural water use of Uzbekistan (23.31%) > agricultural water use of Kazakhstan (22.15%) > industrial water use of Uzbekistan (8.31%) > domestic water use of Kazakhstan (4.68%) > agricultural water use of Tajikistan (4.54%) > domestic water use of Uzbekistan (4.41%); the interactions between industrial water use and agricultural water use of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan and the interactions between reservoir and upstream inflow have the pivotal effects on OSR. In the future, when the agricultural water use of the basin decrease as 4% and the industry water use of Uzbekistan decrease as 2%, the OSR may recover to the middle level of 1970s. The results help identify the major factors affecting the outflow of Syr Darya River as well as seek an effective approach to restore the eco-environment of Aral Sea basin.
水资源短缺导致一系列生态环境问题，如土地盐渍化、生物多样性减少和粮食危机，严重制约了咸海流域的可持续发展。本研究提出了一种逐步聚类因子分析（SCFA）方法，用于评估自然条件和人类活动对锡尔河（简称 OSR）流出量的影响，这对咸海的生态环境恢复具有重要意义。SCFA 结合逐步聚类分析和因子分析，不仅可以反映流出量的可变性，还可以定量识别驱动因素。结果表明，在 1960-1991 年，主导因素（影响 OSR）为上游来水（25.77%）>乌兹别克斯坦农业用水（7.21%）>乌兹别克斯坦工业用水（4.53%）>哈萨克斯坦农业用水（3.81%）>降水（3.66%）；上游来水与乌兹别克斯坦、哈萨克斯坦和塔吉克斯坦农业用水之间的相互作用以及水库与蒸散之间的相互作用对 OSR 有显著影响。结果还表明，在 1992-2015 年，影响 OSR 的主导因素为乌兹别克斯坦农业用水（23.31%）>哈萨克斯坦农业用水（22.15%）>乌兹别克斯坦工业用水（8.31%）>哈萨克斯坦生活用水（4.68%）>塔吉克斯坦农业用水（4.54%）>乌兹别克斯坦生活用水（4.41%）；乌兹别克斯坦、哈萨克斯坦和塔吉克斯坦工业用水与农业用水之间的相互作用以及水库与上游来水之间的相互作用对 OSR 有关键影响。未来，当流域农业用水量减少 4%，乌兹别克斯坦工业用水量减少 2%时，OSR 可能恢复到 20 世纪 70 年代中期的水平。研究结果有助于确定影响锡尔河流出量的主要因素，并寻求有效恢复咸海流域生态环境的方法。
